Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat
Lee, J.R.; Raymond, B.; Bracegirdle, T.J.; Chadès, I.; Fuller, R.A.; Shaw, J.D.; Terauds, A. (2017). Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat. Nature (Lond.) 547(7661): 49–54. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature22996
In: Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 0028-0836; e-ISSN 1476-4687, more
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| Keyword |
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| Author keywords |
Climate-change ecology; Projection and prediction; Climate-change impacts |
| Authors | | Top |
- Lee, J.R.
- Raymond, B.
- Bracegirdle, T.J.
- Chadès, I.
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- Fuller, R.A.
- Shaw, J.D.
- Terauds, A.
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| Abstract |
Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species. |
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