{"projectrec":{"ProID":1077,"StandardTitle":"Modelling the evolution of climate and sea level over the third millennium","OrigTitle":"Modellering van het klimaat en het zeeniveau gedurende het derde millennium (MILMO)","Acronym":"MILMO","AbstractEnglish":"The overall objective of this research proposal is to improve projections of global and European climate and sea-level changes for the twenty-first century and to profoundly investigate processes and dynamic feedbacks in the climate system as well as the likelihood of abrupt climate change during the third millennium. The approach is to implement and use an efficient three-dimensional atmosphere-vegetation-sea-ice-cean model coupled with a model of the oceanic carbon cycle and improved thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We will also implement a global algorithm for calculating the melt from glaciers and small ice caps and a scheme for deriving thermal expansion from the ocean model to be able to assess all major contributors to global sea-level changes.\r\n\r\nThe project will bring together the expertise of three Belgian teams which have excellence in ocean and atmosphere modelling (ASTR-UCL at the Université Catholique de Louvain), global carbon-cycle modelling (ULg-LPAP at the Université de Liège), and modelling of the continental cryosphere (VUB-DGGF at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel). The work of these teams is well embedded in international research programmes or networks. We will build a community model that will be accessible by all of the three teams on a single computer environment to perform numerical simulations of the climate system during the third millennium.\r\n\r\nThe atmospheric component of our model has the big advantage that it has been simplified to a level that makes many runs on a multiple-century timescale computationally feasible, while at the same time producing results which, on the whole, are comparable to those of comprehensive general circulation models. That distinguishes our work from other studies that are often limited to one or two scenarios over a few decades. Preparatory work prior to the coupling of the three subcomponents of our global model will entail improvements in the physics, parameterisations, and datasets according to the latest developments in the respective fields, and to the development of efficient interfaces to exchange information between all the components. Most importantly, we will reduce and hopefully eliminate freshwater-flux corrections in the atmosphere-vegetation-sea-ice-ocean model, refine parameterisations and numerical schemes in the marine carbon-cycle model, and quadruple the resolution of the ice-sheet models to better represent the flow at the ice-sheet margin. Improvements to the global glacier-melt algorithm will include the incorporation of changing glacier area and dynamic adjustment to new climatic conditions.\r\n\r\nWith the coupled model, we will study climate and sea-level changes for the periods 1750-2000 and 2000-2100 with ensemble runs in order to provide a measure of the climate variability exhibited by the model. These experiments will be forced by the observed natural and anthropogenic evolutions of solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol load, carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions, and concentrations of greenhouse gases other than CO2 and of sulphate aerosols for the period 1750-2000, and by the six SRES marker scenarios and the IS92a scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the twenty-first century. Projections of climate and sea-level changes over the third millennium will follow plausible emission scenarios designed to reach concentration stabilisation at various levels. A series of sensitivity experiments will assess the importance of including interactive ice-sheet, land-vegetation, and carbon-cycle representations in the model.\r\n\r\nIn all our experiments, a special emphasis will be on the evolution of carbon-dioxide uptake by the ocean and the continental biosphere and on the stability of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. In addition, the influence of heat and freshwater fluxes on the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic and the effects of the latter on European climate will be investigated thoroughly. In particular, the thresholds at which abrupt climate change could occur in the third millennium will be determined on the basis of model results.","AbstractOtherLang":"De voorspelling van de evolutie van het klimaat en de zeespiegelstand ingevolge menselijke activiteiten vereist het gebruik van globale driedimensionale modellen die alle belangrijke componenten van het klimaatsysteem omvatten (atmosfeer, oceaan, ijs, lithosfeer, en biosfeer). Zulke modellen dienen bovendien voldoende snel en effici&#x00EB;nt te zijn om op de huidige generatie computers een groot aantal simulaties en gevoeligheidsexperimenten over een langere tijdsperiode te kunnen uitvoeren, hetgeen onmogelijk is met de huidige generatie algemene circulatiemodellen (GCM's). Om die reden is het nodig om de modelcomponent die de meeste rekentijd vraagt te vereenvoudigen, welke over het algemeen de atmosferische component is. Modellen van het laatste type bestaan momenteel nog niet, maar worden ontwikkeld in verschillende Europese en Amerikaanse laboratoria. Wij stellen voor om zulk een model te construeren door de koppeling van een driedimensionaal atmosfeer-vegetatie-zeeijs-oceaan model (ECBILT-VECODE-CLIO) met een model voor de oceanische koolstofcyclus (LOCH) alsmede met thermomechanische modellen voor de Groenlandse en Antarctische ijskappen (AGISM). Deze drie componenten werden reeds gedeeltelijk ontwikkeld in het kader van het Eerste Plan voor Wetenschappelijke Ondersteuning van een Beleid gericht op Duurzame Ontwikkeling (PODO I). Om de bijdrage van het landijs op de zeespiegelstand te vervolledigen, is het tevens de bedoeling een globaal algorithme voor de gletsjersmelt aan te wenden in off-line mode. Na validering zullen deze werkinstrumenten gebruikt worden om onze kennis aangaande de interacties in het klimaatsysteem te verdiepen, om de voorspellingen voor de 21ste eeuw te verbeteren, en om de risicos te onderzoeken van abrupte klimaatsveranderingen en zeeniveauwijzigingen in de loop van het 3de millenium. Meer in het bijzonder stellen we voor om: * zo veel mogelijk projecties uit te voeren aangaande klimaatsveranderingen en zeespiegelwijzigingen in de loop van de 21 ste eeuw en het 3 de millenium, door de meest recente scenarios voor anthropogene klimaatsforcering te gebruiken; * een grondige analyse uit te voeren van de gemiddelde klimaatsveranderingen en de variabiliteit zoals gegenereerd door het model, met bijzondere aandacht voor de Noord-Atlantische, Europese, en polaire gebieden; * de rol van de vegetatie, de koolstofcyclus, en de dynamica van de poolkappen te kwantificeren in de geprojecteerde klimaat- en zeespiegelwijzigingen; * de waarschijnlijkheid te onderzoeken van abrupte klimaatswijzigingen gedurende het 3 de millenium; * de processen en interacties te identificeren in het model die tot zulke abrupte klimaatswijzigingen zouden kunnen voeren; * op een kritische manier de resultaten van het model te analyseren, in het bijzonder diegenen die tot snelle klimaatswijzigingen zouden kunnen leiden Behalve de puur wetenschappelijke verdiensten zal het project de decisionmakers kunnen voorzien van nauwkeurigere voorspellingen op langere termijn van klimaats- en zeespiegelwijzigingen. De anthropogene emissiescenarios van CO2 die tot zulke projecties leiden zullen eveneens meegedeeld worden. Bovendien zullen de resultaten van het model nuttig zijn voor een groot aantal projecten van onderzoeksgroepen die de impacts bestuderen (op het gebied van de productiviteit van de landbouw, het hydrologisch evenwicht, de gezondheid, socio-economische aspecten van global change, ...). We voorzien tevens dat onze resultaten zullen toegevoegd worden aan het vierde evaluatierapport van het Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC). Ook zullen zij vergeleken worden met resultaten bekomen in het World Climate Research Program (WCRP), en meer in het bijzonder in de subprogramma's Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) en Arct","DateLastModified":{"date":"2025-07-02 08:33:20.809226","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"ParentProID":1075,"BeginYear":2000,"EndYear":2005,"BMonth":12,"EMonth":2,"BeginMonth":"December","EndMonth":"February","OrigTitleLangCode":"nl","OrigTitleLangID":41,"OrigTitleLangNL":"Nederlands","OrigTitleLang":"Dutch","OtherAbstractLangCode":"nl","OtherAbstractLangID":41,"OtherAbstractLang":"Dutch","OtherAbstractLangNL":"Nederlands","Progress":"Completed","ProgressNL":"Afgelopen","PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"ND":"2003-11-26","UD":"2009-12-11","DMPFlag":0,"Budget":970256,"BudgetCurrency":null},"parent":{"ProID":1075,"Acronym":"SPSD-II","StandardTitle":"Research action SPSD-II: Second scientific support plan for a sustainable development policy"},"persons":null,"projects":null,"events":null,"datasets":null,"institutes":[{"instituterec":{"Acronym":"ELIc","ProPartID":1217,"PublicFlag":1,"OrigNameLangCode":"en","OrigNameLangID":15,"FullOrigName":"Université Catholique de Louvain; Science and Technology Sector; Earth and Life Institute; Earth and Climate division","Line1":"Bâtiment Mercator","Line2":"Place Louis Pasteur 3","Line3":"boite L4.03.08","Line4":"1348 Louvain-la-Neuve","InsID":468,"FullStandardName":"Université Catholique de Louvain; Science and Technology Sector; Earth and Life Institute; Earth and Climate division","Role":null,"RoleID":null,"EncAddress":"Bâtiment Mercator, Place Louis Pasteur 3, boite L4.03.08, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium"},"parent":null,"institutes":null,"references":null,"conferences":null,"datasets":null,"persons":[{"Surname":"Fichefet","Firstname":"Thierry","Initials":"T.","LeaderFlag":0,"PersID":4515,"Role":"Co-ordinator","RoleID":7,"PastInstitute":0,"BeginDay":null,"BeginMonth":null,"BeginYear":null,"EndDay":null,"EndMonth":null,"EndYear":null}],"pastpers":null,"subpers":null,"projects":null,"urls":null,"pictures":null,"published":null,"affrefs":null,"collections":null,"thesterms":null,"taxterms":null,"geoterms":null,"thestermsFRIS":null,"nXtins":null,"previns":null,"spcols":null,"resmessage":"no id specified","complete":0,"participantrec":null,"peerrevs":null,"urlmaps":null},{"instituterec":{"Acronym":"CCG","ProPartID":1218,"PublicFlag":1,"OrigNameLangCode":"en","OrigNameLangID":15,"FullOrigName":"Vrije Universiteit Brussel; Faculty of Sciences; Department of Geography; Centre for Cartography and GIS","Line1":"Pleinlaan 2","Line2":"1050 Brussel","Line3":null,"Line4":null,"InsID":171,"FullStandardName":"Vrije Universiteit Brussel; Centrum voor Cartografie en GIS","Role":null,"RoleID":null,"EncAddress":"Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussel, Belgium"},"parent":null,"institutes":null,"references":null,"conferences":null,"datasets":null,"persons":[{"Surname":"Decleir","Firstname":"Hugo","Initials":"H.","LeaderFlag":0,"PersID":258,"Role":null,"RoleID":null,"PastInstitute":0,"BeginDay":null,"BeginMonth":null,"BeginYear":null,"EndDay":null,"EndMonth":null,"EndYear":null},{"Surname":"Huybrechts","Firstname":"Philippe","Initials":"Ph.","LeaderFlag":0,"PersID":9933,"Role":null,"RoleID":null,"PastInstitute":null,"BeginDay":null,"BeginMonth":null,"BeginYear":null,"EndDay":null,"EndMonth":null,"EndYear":null}],"pastpers":null,"subpers":null,"projects":null,"urls":null,"pictures":null,"published":null,"affrefs":null,"collections":null,"thesterms":null,"taxterms":null,"geoterms":null,"thestermsFRIS":null,"nXtins":null,"previns":null,"spcols":null,"resmessage":"no id specified","complete":0,"participantrec":null,"peerrevs":null,"urlmaps":null},{"instituterec":{"Acronym":"LPAP","ProPartID":1219,"PublicFlag":1,"OrigNameLangCode":"en","OrigNameLangID":15,"FullOrigName":"Université de Liège; Faculty of Sciences; Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography; Laboratory for Planetary and Atmospheric Physics","Line1":"17, allée du 6 Août","Line2":"Sart Tilman, Bât. 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