{"projectrec":{"ProID":1538,"StandardTitle":"Risk analysis of marine activities in the Belgian Part of the North Sea","OrigTitle":"Risico analyse van mariene activiteiten in het Belgisch deel van de Noordzee","Acronym":"RAMA","AbstractEnglish":"<ul><li>Context\r\n\r\nRecent accidents in European waters (eg. Prestige, Tricolor, …) have shown that policy makers are confronted with the occurrence of incidents that do severely damage the environment, irrespective of national borders.\r\nThe engagement of society for a sustainable management of the sea and the coast has lead at national and international level to increased attention. This is shown among others by recent changes in the EU legislation and from the request towards OSPAR for the development of appropriate risk assessments as mentioned in the Bergen declaration of the 5th North Sea Conference.\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>Project Description \r\n\r\nThe Belgian Part of the North Sea is an intensely used marine area. This rather small part of the southern North Sea contains one of the most intensive merchant shipping routes in the world. Besides shipping it is also used for a wide, and increasing variety of human activities, which all pose a certain danger to the environment. The frequency with which incidents with environmental damage may be expected and the severity of these are however only poorly known or not known at all, which inhibits the development of appropriate measures for risk reduction.\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul><li>Objectives\r\n\r\nThe main goal of this project is to carry out a risk analysis of all relevant incidents with environmental damage to the Belgian part of the sea, the coast or the beaches due to human activities. \r\nThis general goal is translated into several specific objectives:\r\n\r\n• Analysis of the different methods for risk analysis including the kind of information delivered as well as their usefulness\r\n• Identify and analyse (as much as possible) all relevant incidents.\r\n• Estimate the risk by assessing the probability of occurrence and the potential impact.\r\n• Classify the different incidents according to their risk level and study the highest risk incident scenarios more extensively.\r\n• Formulate recommendations to improve the safety level for the environment and to optimise the responses in the framework of the Belgian ‘North Sea disaster plan’.\r\n• Translate the results of the project towards potential end users.\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>Methodology\r\n\r\nIn the present study the following approach will be applied:\r\n\r\n• The qualitative comparison of methods for risk analysis will highlight the advantages and disadvantages (applicability of results, reliability and uncertainties) of the methods available for each consecutive step in the risk assessment process. This comparison will be based on literature research, will focus on marine incidents and will also identify gaps in knowledge.\r\n• The different activities which form potential risks for environmental damage will be catalogued and analysed, exploring further existing datasets and data available with authorities such as the Vessel Traffic Centre. This requires development of a geographically related dataset on distribution, intensity and characteristics of the different activities.\r\n• Based on this listing, the different types of incidents that might happen will be studied. Event-analysis as well as incident casuistics, of the Belgian and adjacent waters, will be used . \r\n• The quantitative analysis of the probability of the occurrence of incidents will focus on occurrence of shipping accidents and will use recent data. Methodology developped by DNV during the SAFECO I and II projects and the models they have developed (e.g. Marine Accident Risk Calculation System - MARCS) will be used. \r\n• The environmental impacts at occurrence of incidents will be studied using available (ecotoxicological) data and using a sensitivity analysis of the affected marine, coastal and beach areas, maximising an ecosystem approach. A few selected scenario’s will form the basis of this part of the study.\r\n• Combination of probabilistic results and effects in case of occurrence will result in a ranking of incidents using a multi-dimensional decision matrix. Criteria will be proposed and applied to classify the studied risks.\r\n• The Belgian North Sea disaster plan will be studied and compared with the disaster plans of neigbouring parties of the Bonn Agreement. Results of the risk analysis will be integrated to identify possible problems. Problem identification will also take place by means of interviewing the key persons involved in implemention of the plan. \r\n• Identified problems will be met by proposals for improvement and shall be incorporated in a newly drafted Belgian North Sea disaster plan.","AbstractOtherLang":"<ul><li>Context\r\n\r\nRecente accidenten in Europese wateren (bv. Prestige, Tricolor, …) hebben aangetoond dat beleidsmakers geconfronteerd worden met incidenten die het milieu zwaar beschadigen, onafgezien van nationale grenzen.\r\nDe gedrevenheid van de maatschappij voor een duurzaam beheer van de zee en de kust heeft op het nationale en het internationale niveau geleid tot een verhoogde waakzaamheid. Dit blijkt onder meer uit recente wijzigingen in de EG-wetgeving en uit de vraag naar OSPAR toe voor de ontwikkeling van gepaste risicoanalyse zoals gemeld in de verklaring van Bergen uit de 5de Noordzeeconferentie. \r\n\r\n\r\n<li>Beschrijving van het project\r\n\r\nDe Belgische sector van de Noordzee is een zeegebied waarvan zeer intens gebruik wordt gemaakt. Dit klein zeegebied omvat een van de meest druk bevaren routes voor koopvaardijvaart in de wereld. Behalve voor scheepvaart wordt het gebied bovendien nog gebruikt voor een zeer gevarieerd en nog steeds uitbreidend pallet van menselijke activiteiten, welke allemaal een mogelijk gevaar voor het milieu vormen. De frequentie van voorkomen en te verwachten impact van incidenten op zee met milieuschade zijn echter zeer slecht of zelfs helemaal niet gekend, wat het treffen van adequate maatregelen voor risicobeheersing zeer moeilijk maakt.\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul><li>Doelstellingen\r\n\r\nHet belangrijkste doel van het project is een risicoanalyse uit te voeren van alle relevante incidenten als gevolg van menselijke activiteiten, met de nadruk op scheepvaart, die kunnen leiden tot milieuschade in het Belgische deel van de Noordzee, de kust of de stranden.\r\nDit algemene doel is vertaald in verschillende specifieke doelen:\r\n\r\n• vergelijking van de gebruikte risicoanalyse methoden inclusief hun informatie die ze leveren als hun bruikbaarheid\r\n• Identificatie en analyse van alle relevante incidenten\r\n• Schatting van het risico door de kans van voorkomen en de mogelijke impact te bepalen\r\n• Klasseren van verschillende incidenten naar risiconiveau en diepgaandere studie van de hoogste risico scenario’s\r\n• Formuleren van aanbevelingen om het veiligheidsniveau voor het milieu te verhogen en het optimaliseren van de responsen in het kader van het ‘Noordzee Rampenplan’\r\n• Vertalen van de resultaten naar mogelijke eindgebruikers.\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>Methodologie\r\n\r\nIn deze zullen de volgende benaderingen gebruikt worden:\r\n\r\n• De kwalitatieve vergelijking van methoden voor risicoanalyse zal de voordelen en nadelen (toepasbaarheid van resultaten, betrouwbaarheid en onzekerheden) belichten van de beschikbare methoden voor elke stap in het risico analyse proces. Deze vergelijking is gebaseerd op literatuuronderzoek en richt zich op marien incidenten en zal ook gebreken in kennis indentificeren.\r\n• De verschillende activiteiten die een mogelijk risico voor milieuschade vormen zullen geanalyseerd en gecatalogeerd worden, door het verder te exploreren van bestaande datasets en data beschikbaar bij de autoriteiten zoals het Vessel Traffic Centre. Dit vereist de ontwikkeling van een geografisch gerelateerde dataset over de distributie, intensiteit en eigenschappen van de verschillende activiteiten.\r\n• Gebaseerd op deze oplijsting zullen de verschillende types incidenten die kunnen voorkomen bestudeerd worden. Event-analysis alsook incident casuïstiek van de Belgische en naburige wateren zullen gebruikt worden. \r\n• De kwantitatieve analyse van de kans op voorkomen van incidenten zal zich toespitsen op het voorkomen van scheepvaartaccidenten en zal gebruik maken van recente data. De methodologie ontwikkeld door DNV gedurende het SAFECO I en II project en de modellen die ze ontwikkeld hebben (bv. Marine Accident Risk Calculation System - MARCS) zullen gebruikt worden.\r\n• De milieu-impact bij het voorkomen van incidenten zal bestudeerd worden op basis van beschikbare (ecotoxicologische) data en een sensitiviteitsanalyse van de getroffen mariene, kust en strand gebieden, maximaal uitgaande van een ecosysteem benadering. Een paar geselecteerde scenario’s vormen de basis voor dit deel van de studie.\r\n• Combinatie van de probabilistische resultaten en effecten in geval van voorkomen zullen resulteren in een rangschikking van de incidenten gebruik makend van een multi-dimensionele beslissingsmatrix. Criteria zullen voorgesteld en toegepast worden om de bestudeerde risico’s te rangschikken.\r\n• Het Belgische Rampenplan Noordzee zal bestudeerd en vergeleken worden met rampenplannen van naburige partijen van het Bonn Agreement. Resultaten van de risicoanalyse zullen geïntegreerd worden om mogelijke problemen te identificeren. Probleemidentificatie zal ook gebeuren middels bevraging van sleutelpersonen in de implmentatie van het plan. \r\n• Voorstellen ter verbetering van de geidentificeerde problemen zullen uitgewerkt worden en zullen geïntegreerd worden in een nieuwe ontwerptekst Rampenplan Noordzee.","DateLastModified":{"date":"2025-07-02 08:33:20.809226","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"ParentProID":1075,"BeginYear":2003,"EndYear":2006,"BMonth":12,"EMonth":4,"BeginMonth":"December","EndMonth":"April","OrigTitleLangCode":"nl","OrigTitleLangID":41,"OrigTitleLangNL":"Nederlands","OrigTitleLang":"Dutch","OtherAbstractLangCode":"nl","OtherAbstractLangID":41,"OtherAbstractLang":"Dutch","OtherAbstractLangNL":"Nederlands","Progress":"Completed","ProgressNL":"Afgelopen","PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":1,"ND":"2004-09-10","UD":"2009-12-14","DMPFlag":0,"Budget":178989,"BudgetCurrency":"EUR"},"parent":{"ProID":1075,"Acronym":"SPSD-II","StandardTitle":"Research action SPSD-II: Second scientific support plan for a sustainable development policy"},"persons":null,"projects":null,"events":null,"datasets":null,"institutes":[{"instituterec":{"Acronym":null,"ProPartID":6270,"PublicFlag":1,"OrigNameLangCode":null,"OrigNameLangID":null,"FullOrigName":null,"Line1":null,"Line2":null,"Line3":null,"Line4":null,"InsID":4256,"FullStandardName":"ARCADIS; 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