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The purpose of this thesis is to determine the probability of a collision and the probability of the severity of damage in case of a collision.<br>The basic variables to determine wether there will be a collision, are the ship's  distance to the channel border, d<sub>n</sub>, and a measure for the direction of the ship's  movement, the difference delta d<sub>n</sub>.The velocity normal to the channel border is a measure for the impact energy in case of a collision. This impact energy indicates the severity of the damage.<br>The distributions of these variables are determined, using the results of the  simulation trials. 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