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Average annual survival of adults between 1986 and 1996 was 86.0% with no significant annual differences. Survival in 1997 (51.6%) was signifcantly lower and preliminary estimates for 1998 suggested that survival was again low. Using our we estimated a 20% survival from fledging to recruitment and an age of first breeding of 4-5 years. Incorporating these values into a simple population model indicated that the Fair Isle colony will decline by a further 13-48% over the next three seasons. 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