{"refrec":{"BRefID":251667,"RR":"Ritz, C.; Edwards, T.L.; Durand, G.; Payne, A.J.; Peyaud, V.; Hindmarsh, R.C.A. (2015). Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations. Nature (Lond.) 528(7580): 115-118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature16147","BEntID":243364,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":1,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". Nature (Lond.) 528(7580): 115-118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature16147","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":1,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Ritz, C.; Edwards, T.L.; Durand, G.; Payne, A.J.; Peyaud, V.; Hindmarsh, R.C.A.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Ritz, C. et al.","Englishabstract":"Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI)(1), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence(2-4) that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions(5-8), the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging(9): numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive(2,3,10) to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections(11) rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments9 (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-13 01:31:24.213347","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2015,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2018-02-13","DateCreate":"2015-12-04","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000365606000059","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/nature16147"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":251667,"PubliDate":2015,"Pagination":"115-118","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"528","Issue":"7580","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":43431,"SerRR":"Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 0028-0836; e-ISSN 1476-4687","StandardTitleSer":"Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science","ISSN":"0028-0836","AbbrevSer":"Nature (Lond.)","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":115,"Pages":4,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Ritz","Firstname":"Catherine","Initials":"C.","Affiliation":"CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":243364,"AutID":303014,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Edwards","Firstname":"Tamsin","Initials":"T.L.","Affiliation":"Open Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Environm Earth & Ecosyst, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":243364,"AutID":303015,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Durand","Firstname":"Gaël","Initials":"G.","Affiliation":"CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":243364,"AutID":303016,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Payne","Firstname":"Antony","Initials":"A.J.","Affiliation":"Univ Bristol, Dept Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":243364,"AutID":303017,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Peyaud","Firstname":"Vincent","Initials":"V.","Affiliation":"CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":243364,"AutID":303018,"OrderNr":5,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Hindmarsh","Firstname":null,"Initials":"R.C.A.","Affiliation":"British Antarctic Survey, Nat Environm Res Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, England.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":243364,"AutID":303019,"OrderNr":6,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":281712,"LibID":36,"BRefID":251667,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":1,"ShelfLocCode":"281712","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"Interne VLIZ documenten","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Non-open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":228,"Classification":"Non-open access","ReqLink":1,"ClassifTypID":3,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":1,"InternalReq":1,"LoggedInReq":1,"Disclaimer":"Disclaimer_VLIZ_Intern","DutchDisclaimer":"
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