Het betreffen berekeningen voor afvarende marginale containervaart uit Deurganckdok bij verschillende verdiepingsscenario’s van de meest opwaartse Scheldedrempels en bij verschillende aannames voor de vaarsnelheden langsheen het traject.
Het meest beperkte verdiepingsscenario betreft de verdieping van de vier meest opwaartse Scheldedrempels tot maximaal -14.9 m LAT:
• Frederik: -14.7 m LAT,
• Zandvliet: -14.7 m LAT,
• Bath: -14.9 m LAT en
• Valkenisse: -14.7 m LAT.
Dit verdiepingsscenario blijkt voor diepgang 15.5 m slechts tot een beperkte toegankelijkheid voor afvarende containervaart uit Deurganckdok te leiden. Wanneer hierbij uitgegaan wordt van een snelheidsprofiel zoals toegepast in de operationele toegankelijkheidstool WESP, dan blijkt slechts in 2 % van de tijen een schip met diepgang 15.5 m af te kunnen varen. De aangenomen vaarsnelheden hebben echter een grote invloed op de resultaten. Zo blijkt dat wanneer uitgegaan wordt van gemiddelde vaarsnelheden bekomen uit een AIS-analyse, de toegankelijkheid toeneemt tot 43 %.
De toepassing van AIS-gemiddelde vaarsnelheden gaat echter gepaard met een verlaging van de aanvaarde veiligheidsmarge in de tijpoortberekening. Een eventuele aanpassing van de toe te passen vaarsnelheden dient gebaseerd te worden op een globale risicobeoordeling van de toegankelijkheidsberekening. 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