{"refrec":{"BRefID":283182,"RR":"Chand, S.S.; Tory, K.J.; Ye, H.; Walsh, K.J.E. (2016). Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific. Nat. Clim. Chang. 7(2): 123-127. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3181","BEntID":275201,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":1,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". Nat. Clim. Chang. 7(2): 123-127. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3181","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":1,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Chand, S.S.; Tory, K.J.; Ye, H.; Walsh, K.J.E.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Chand, S.S. et al.","Englishabstract":"The El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world(1-3). However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming(4-8) will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins(9-11). Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (similar to 20-40%) during future-climate El Nino events compared with present-climate El Nino events-and less frequent during future-climate La Nina events-around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database(12), forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Nino-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-04-17 01:32:12.194961","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":"Atmospheric dynamics; Ocean science; Projection and prediction","OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2016,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2018-02-13","DateCreate":"2017-02-02","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000396348500013","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/nclimate3181"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":283182,"PubliDate":2016,"Pagination":"123-127","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"7","Issue":"2","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":218223,"SerRR":"Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Climate Change","ISSN":"1758-678X","AbbrevSer":"Nat. Clim. Chang.","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":123,"Pages":5,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Chand","Firstname":"Savin","Initials":"S.S.","Affiliation":"Federat Univ Australia, Ctr Informat & Appl Optimizat, Mt Helen, Vic 3353, Australia.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":275201,"AutID":302275,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Tory","Firstname":"Kevin","Initials":"K.J.","Affiliation":"Bur Meteorol, Res & Dev Branch, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":275201,"AutID":302276,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Ye","Firstname":"Hua","Initials":"H.","Affiliation":"Bur Meteorol, Res & Dev Branch, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":275201,"AutID":302277,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Walsh","Firstname":"Kevin","Initials":"K.J.E.","Affiliation":"Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":275201,"AutID":302278,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":298936,"LibID":36,"BRefID":283182,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":1,"ShelfLocCode":"298936","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"Interne VLIZ documenten","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Non-open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":228,"Classification":"Non-open access","ReqLink":1,"ClassifTypID":3,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":1,"InternalReq":1,"LoggedInReq":1,"Disclaimer":"Disclaimer_VLIZ_Intern","DutchDisclaimer":"
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