{"refrec":{"BRefID":283218,"RR":"<b>Deschamps, M.; Coen, L.; Chu, K.; Verwaest, T.; Mostaert, F.</b> (2017). Model-en data-analyse ten behoeve van betere tij-verwachtingen: deelrapport 3. Model-analyse. Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 16_016_3. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen. VII, 18 pp.","BEntID":275236,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":0,"vabbflag":0,"RefStringPartII":". Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 16_016_3. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen.  VII, 18 pp.","DocTypID":13,"DocType":"Reports","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Deschamps, M.; Coen, L.; Chu, K.; Verwaest, T.; Mostaert, F.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Deschamps, M. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":null,"AbstractOtherLang":"In het stormseizoen 2015-2016 werden 2 stormevents te laag verwacht door de permanentiedienst van het HIC. Om dit in de toekomst te vermijden werd een project opgestart waarin zowel de data (metingen, voorspellingen) als de modellen zelf grondig geanalyseerd werden. In dit rapport wordt de model-analyse samengevat. Het is een samenvatting van 2 deelrapporten, 1 deelrapport rond de 1D-modellen en 1 deelrapport rond de 2D-modellen.<p>In dit rapport wordt de kwaliteit van beide type modellen toegelicht. Ook werd een gevoeligheidsanalyse uitgevoerd naar wind voor beide modeltypes. Voor de 2D-modellen werden naast wind ook heel wat andere invloedsfactoren bekeken.<p>Dit leert ons dat modellen sowieso modellen blijven en een vereenvoudiging van de werkelijkheid. In sommige situaties presteren ze uitermate goed, in andere specifieke situaties kunnen ze afwijken. Dit is onder meer afhankelijke van op welke parameters het model gecalibreerd werd en welke periode. Sommige stormen worden goed gemodelleerd, andere minder goed. Het is aan diegene die de modelresultaten moet interpreteren om hiermee rekening te houden. Het idee dat de modellen altijd juist zijn dient dus bijgestuurd. Ze hebben inherent onzekerheid in zich, zo ook hebben de invoergegevens (voorspelde wind, voorspelde afvoeren) van de modellen een bepaalde onzekerheid, en daar moet mee rekening gehouden worden. De modellen blijven echter een heel belangrijke input om de tijverwachtingen op te stellen. ","BibLvlCode":"MS","StandardTitle":"Model-en data-analyse ten behoeve van betere tij-verwachtingen: deelrapport 3. 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