{"refrec":{"BRefID":291201,"RR":"<b>Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G.A.; Underwood, S.</b> (2017). Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea. <i>Nat. Clim. Chang. 7(12)</i>: 885-889. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6</a>","BEntID":283244,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":1,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nat. Clim. Chang. 7(12)</i>: 885-889. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G.A.; Underwood, S.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Murakami, H. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s−1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-04-26 01:31:46.732915","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2017,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2018-02-13","DateCreate":"2017-12-01","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000417014700015","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":291201,"PubliDate":2017,"Pagination":"885-889","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"7","Issue":"12","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":218223,"SerRR":"Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London.  ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Climate Change","ISSN":"1758-678X","AbbrevSer":"Nat. Clim. 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