{"refrec":{"BRefID":296246,"RR":"<b>Sigmond, M.; Fyfe, J.C.; Swart, N.C.</b> (2018). Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement. <i>Nat. Clim. Chang. 8(5)</i>: 404-408. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y</a>","BEntID":288335,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nat. Clim. Chang. 8(5)</i>: 404-408. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Sigmond, M.; Fyfe, J.C.; Swart, N.C.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Sigmond, M. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"Under the Paris Agreement, emissions scenarios are pursued that would stabilize the global mean temperature at 1.5–2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, but current emission reduction policies are expected to limit warming by 2100 to approximately 3.0 °C. Whether such emissions scenarios would prevent a summer sea-ice-free Arctic is unknown. Here we employ stabilized warming simulations with an Earth System Model to obtain sea-ice projections under stabilized global warming, and correct biases in mean sea-ice coverage by constraining with observations. Although there is some sensitivity to details in the constraining method, the observationally constrained projections suggest that the benefits of going from 2.0 °C to 1.5 °C stabilized warming are substantial; an eightfold decrease in the frequency of ice-free conditions is expected, from once in every five to once in every forty years. Under 3.0 °C global mean warming, however, permanent summer ice-free conditions are likely, which emphasizes the need for nations to increase their commitments to the Paris Agreement.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-11 01:32:24.539070","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2018,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2018-05-17","DateCreate":"2018-05-17","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000431139900023","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":296246,"PubliDate":2018,"Pagination":"404-408","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"8","Issue":"5","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":218223,"SerRR":"Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London.  ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Climate Change","ISSN":"1758-678X","AbbrevSer":"Nat. Clim. 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