{"refrec":{"BRefID":311942,"RR":"<b>Bamber, J.L.; Oppenheimer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Aspinall, W.; Cooke, R.M.</b> (2019). Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment. <i>Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 116(23)</i>: 11195-11200. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116</a>","BEntID":304305,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 116(23)</i>: 11195-11200. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":1,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Bamber, J.L.; Oppenheimer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Aspinall, W.; Cooke, R.M.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Bamber, J.L. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-15 01:33:18.240287","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":"Sea-level rise; Climate predictions; Ice sheets; Greenland; Antarctica","OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2019,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2022-10-05","DateCreate":"2019-06-05","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000470136000024","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1073/pnas.1817205116"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":311942,"PubliDate":2019,"Pagination":"11195-11200","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"116","Issue":"23","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":43690,"SerRR":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 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