{"refrec":{"BRefID":314408,"RR":"Pfleiderer, P.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Kornhuber, K.; Coumou, D. (2019). Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9(9): 666-671. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0","BEntID":307437,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". Nat. Clim. Chang. 9(9): 666-671. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Pfleiderer, P.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Kornhuber, K.; Coumou, D.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Pfleiderer, P. et al.","Englishabstract":"Heat and rainfall extremes have intensified over the past few decades and this trend is projected to continue with future global warming1,2,3. A long persistence of extreme events often leads to societal impacts with warm-and-dry conditions severely affecting agriculture and consecutive days of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Here we report systematic increases in the persistence of boreal summer weather in a multi-model analysis of a world 2 °C above pre-industrial compared to present-day climate. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land area, the probability of warm periods lasting longer than two weeks is projected to increase by 4% (2–6% full uncertainty range) after removing seasonal-mean warming. Compound dry–warm persistence increases at a similar magnitude on average but regionally up to 20% (11–42%) in eastern North America. The probability of at least seven consecutive days of strong precipitation increases by 26% (15–37%) for the mid-latitudes. We present evidence that weakening storm track activity contributes to the projected increase in warm and dry persistence. These changes in persistence are largely avoided when warming is limited to 1.5 °C. In conjunction with the projected intensification of heat and rainfall extremes, an increase in persistence can substantially worsen the effects of future weather extremes.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-15 01:33:19.521651","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2019,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2019-09-03","DateCreate":"2019-09-03","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000483551700016","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":314408,"PubliDate":2019,"Pagination":"666-671","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"9","Issue":"9","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":218223,"SerRR":"Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Climate Change","ISSN":"1758-678X","AbbrevSer":"Nat. Clim. Chang.","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":666,"Pages":6,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Pfleiderer","Firstname":"Peter","Initials":"P.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":307437,"AutID":391273,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Schleussner","Firstname":"Carl-Friedrich","Initials":"C.-F.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":307437,"AutID":391274,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Kornhuber","Firstname":"Kai","Initials":"K.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":307437,"AutID":391275,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Coumou","Firstname":"Dim","Initials":"D.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":307437,"AutID":391276,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":336374,"LibID":36,"BRefID":314408,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":null,"ShelfLocCode":"336374","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"Interne VLIZ documenten","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Non-open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":228,"Classification":"Non-open access","ReqLink":1,"ClassifTypID":3,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":1,"InternalReq":1,"LoggedInReq":1,"Disclaimer":"Disclaimer_VLIZ_Intern","DutchDisclaimer":"
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