{"refrec":{"BRefID":314422,"RR":"Blackport, R.; Screen, J.A.; van der Wiel, K.; Bintanja, R. (2019). Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9(9): 697-704. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0551-4","BEntID":307460,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". Nat. Clim. Chang. 9(9): 697-704. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0551-4","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Blackport, R.; Screen, J.A.; van der Wiel, K.; Bintanja, R.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Blackport, R. et al.","Englishabstract":"Observations show that reduced regional sea-ice cover is coincident with cold mid-latitude winters on interannual timescales. However, it remains unclear whether these observed links are causal, and model experiments suggest that they might not be. Here we apply two independent approaches to infer causality from observations and climate models and to reconcile these sources of data. Models capture the observed correlations between reduced sea ice and cold mid-latitude winters, but only when reduced sea ice coincides with anomalous heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean, implying that the atmosphere is driving the loss. Causal inference from the physics-based approach is corroborated by a lead–lag analysis, showing that circulation-driven temperature anomalies precede, but do not follow, reduced sea ice. Furthermore, no mid-latitude cooling is found in modelling experiments with imposed future sea-ice loss. Our results show robust support for anomalous atmospheric circulation simultaneously driving cold mid-latitude winters and mild Arctic conditions, and reduced sea ice having a minimal influence on severe mid-latitude winters.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-15 01:33:19.521651","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2019,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2019-09-03","DateCreate":"2019-09-03","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000483551700021","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/s41558-019-0551-4"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":314422,"PubliDate":2019,"Pagination":"697-704","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"9","Issue":"9","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":218223,"SerRR":"Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Climate Change","ISSN":"1758-678X","AbbrevSer":"Nat. Clim. Chang.","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":697,"Pages":8,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":[{"YBRefID":314406,"RefStrFull":"Fyfe, J.C. (2019). Midlatitudes unaffected by sea ice loss. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9(9): 649-650. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0560-3","RelID":4,"Relation":"Related to","StandardTitle":"Midlatitudes unaffected by sea ice loss"}],"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Blackport","Firstname":"Russell","Initials":"R.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":307460,"AutID":391311,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Screen","Firstname":"James","Initials":"J.A.","Affiliation":"Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":1,"BEntID":307460,"AutID":302313,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"van der Wiel","Firstname":"Karin","Initials":"K.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":307460,"AutID":391312,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Bintanja","Firstname":"Richard","Initials":"R.","Affiliation":"Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, NL-3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":307460,"AutID":303229,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":336379,"LibID":36,"BRefID":314422,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":null,"ShelfLocCode":"336379","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"Interne VLIZ documenten","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Non-open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":228,"Classification":"Non-open access","ReqLink":1,"ClassifTypID":3,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":1,"InternalReq":1,"LoggedInReq":1,"Disclaimer":"Disclaimer_VLIZ_Intern","DutchDisclaimer":"
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