{"refrec":{"BRefID":318160,"RR":"<b>Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta, D.; Mauritsen, T.</b> (2019). Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO<sub>2</sub> from post-1970s global warming. <i>Nature Geoscience 12(11)</i>: 902-905. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y</a>","BEntID":311597,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nature Geoscience 12(11)</i>: 902-905. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta, D.; Mauritsen, T.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta, D.; Mauritsen, T.","Englishabstract":"Future global warming is determined by both greenhouse gas emission pathways and Earth’s transient and equilibrium climate response to doubled atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>. Energy-balance inference from the instrumental record typically yields central estimates for the transient response of around 1.3 K and the equilibrium response of 1.5–2.0 K, which is at the lower end of those from contemporary climate models. Uncertainty arises primarily from poorly known aerosol-induced cooling since the early industrialization era and a temporary cooling induced by evolving sea surface temperature patterns. Here we present an emergent constraint on post-1970s warming, taking advantage of the weakly varying aerosol cooling during this period. We derive a relationship between the transient response and the post-1970s warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We thereby constrain, with the observations, the transient response to 1.67 K (1.17–2.16 K, 5–95th percentiles). This is a 20% increase relative to energy-balance inference stemming from previously neglected upper-ocean energy storage. For the equilibrium climate sensitivity we obtain a best estimate of 2.83 K (1.72–4.12 K) contingent on the temporary pattern effects exhibited by climate models. If the real world’s surface temperature pattern effects are substantially stronger, then the upper-bound equilibrium sensitivity may be higher than found here.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO<sub>2</sub> from post-1970s global warming","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2024-12-10 01:33:17.368041","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+01:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2019,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2019-11-21","DateCreate":"2019-11-21","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000493905700010","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":318160,"PubliDate":2019,"Pagination":"902-905","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"12","Issue":"11","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":123796,"SerRR":"Nature Geoscience. Nature Publishing Group: London.  ISSN 1752-0894; e-ISSN 1752-0908","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Geoscience","ISSN":"1752-0894","AbbrevSer":"Nature Geoscience","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":902,"Pages":4,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta","Firstname":"Diego","Initials":"D.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":311597,"AutID":396413,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Mauritsen","Firstname":"Thorsten","Initials":"T.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":311597,"AutID":396414,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":340499,"LibID":36,"BRefID":318160,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":null,"ShelfLocCode":"340499","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"Interne VLIZ documenten","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Non-open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":228,"Classification":"Non-open access","ReqLink":1,"ClassifTypID":3,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":1,"InternalReq":1,"LoggedInReq":1,"Disclaimer":"Disclaimer_VLIZ_Intern","DutchDisclaimer":"<p>Deze publicatie is enkel beschikbaar voor persoonlijk gebruik binnen de Innovocean site <br />en mag op geen enkele manier verder worden verspreid.</p>","FileFormat":".pdf","FileDescr":"pdf","InsPub":1,"InsID":36,"FileFormID":6,"LendableFlag":1,"PublicFlag":1,"orderLib":"A","Notes":null,"AccConID":null,"AccessConstraint":null,"LicURL":null}],"litstyles":null,"thespers":null,"arch2discl":null,"SERpubls":[{"PublName":"Nature Publishing Group","City":"London"}],"MONpubls":null,"pictures":[],"thestermsPath":null,"thestermsASFA":null,"taxtermsASFA":null,"geotermsASFA":null,"collections":null,"conf":null,"proj":null,"Physdatasets":null,"spcols":null,"doi":null,"publs":null,"serparttypes":null,"monauthors":null,"MParts":null,"SParts":null,"hLibs":null,"langs":[{"BEntID":311597,"AbstractFlag":0,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"},{"BEntID":311597,"AbstractFlag":1,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"}],"urls":[{"URL":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y","externalID":"10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y","URLTypeCode":"DOI","URLID":79671,"URLTypID":13,"URLType":"DOI","URLPrefix":"http://dx.doi.org/"}],"thesterms":null,"taxterms":null,"geoterms":null,"othterms":null,"asfacodes":null,"asfa2codes":null,"thestermsFRIS":null,"taxtermsFRIS":null,"geotermsFRIS":null,"othtermsFRIS":null,"resmessage":"","complete":1,"sessions":{"newSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","newSesDate":{"date":"2019-11-21 13:50:21.827000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"},"updSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","updSesDate":{"date":"2019-11-21 13:50:21.827000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"}}}