{"refrec":{"BRefID":320656,"RR":"<b>Castellana, D.; Baars, S.; Wubs, F.W.; Dijkstra, H.A.</b> (2019). Transition probabilities of noise-induced transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. <i>NPG Scientific Reports 9(1)</i>: 20284. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6</a>","BEntID":314095,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>NPG Scientific Reports 9(1)</i>: 20284. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":1,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Castellana, D.; Baars, S.; Wubs, F.W.; Dijkstra, H.A.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Castellana, D. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Transition probabilities of noise-induced transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-16 01:33:11.312370","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2019,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2020-01-09","DateCreate":"2020-01-09","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000508984900003","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":320656,"PubliDate":2019,"Pagination":"20284","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"9","Issue":"1","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":208093,"SerRR":"Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group). 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