Document of bibliographic reference 327916

BibliographicReference record

Type

Bibliographic resource

Type of document

Journal article

BibLvlCode

AS

Title

A new island-scale tropical cyclone outlook for southwest Pacific nations and territories

Abstract

The southwest Pacific (SWP) region is vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) related impacts which adversely affect people, infrastructure and economies across several nations and territories. Skilful TC outlooks are needed for this region, but the erratic nature of SWP TCs and the complex ocean–atmosphere interactions that influence TC behaviour on seasonal timescales presents significant challenges. Here, we present a new TC outlook tool for the SWP using multivariate Poisson regression with indices of multiple climate modes. This approach provides skilful, island-scale TC count outlooks from July (four months ahead of the official TC season start in November). Monthly island-scale TC frequency outlooks are generated between July and December, enabling continuous refinement of predicted TC counts before and during a TC season. Use of this approach in conjunction with other seasonal climate guidance (including dynamical models) has implications for preparations ahead of severe weather events, resilience and risk reduction.

WebOfScience code

https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000555516800001

Bibliographic citation

Magee, A.D.; Lorrey, A.M.; Kiem, A.S.; Colyvas, K. (2020). A new island-scale tropical cyclone outlook for southwest Pacific nations and territories. NPG Scientific Reports 10: 11286. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67646-7

Is peer reviewed

true

Access rights

open access

Is accessible for free

true