{"refrec":{"BRefID":329878,"RR":"<b>Tinker, J.; Palmer, M.D.; Copsey, D.; Howard, T.; Lowe, J.A.; Hermans, T.H.J.</b> (2020). Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas. <i>Clim. Dyn. 55(7-8)</i>: 2207-2236. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05378-0\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05378-0</a>","BEntID":323485,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Clim. Dyn. 55(7-8)</i>: 2207-2236. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05378-0\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05378-0</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Tinker, J.; Palmer, M.D.; Copsey, D.; Howard, T.; Lowe, J.A.; Hermans, T.H.J.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Tinker, J. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"Variability of Sea-Surface Height (SSH) from ocean dynamic processes is an important component of sea-level change. In this study we dynamically downscale a present-day control simulation of a climate model to replicate sea-level variability in the Northwest European shelf seas. The simulation can reproduce many characteristics of sea-level variability exhibited in tide gauge and satellite altimeter observations. We examine the roles of lateral ocean boundary conditions and surface atmospheric forcings in determining the sea-level variability in the model interior using sensitivity experiments. Variability in the oceanic boundary conditions leads to uniform sea-level variations across the shelf. Atmospheric variability leads to spatial SSH variability with a greater mean amplitude. We separate the SSH variability into a uniform loading term (change in shelf volume with no change in distribution), and a spatial redistribution term (with no volume change). The shelf loading variance accounted for 80% of the shelf mean total variance, but this drops to ~ 60% around Scotland and in the southeast North Sea. We analyse our modelled variability to provide a useful context to coastal planners and managers. Our 200-year simulation allows the distribution of the unforced trends (over 4–21 year) of sea-level changes to be quantified. We found that the 95th percentile change over a 4-year period can lead to coastal sea-level changes of ~ 58 mm, which must be considered when using smooth sea level projections. We also found that simulated coastal SSH variations have long correlation length-scales, suggesting that observations of interannual sea-level variability from tide gauges are typically representative of > 200 km of the adjacent coast. This helps guide the use of tide gauge variability estimates.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-11 01:32:42.056261","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":"Regional sea-level variability; Northwest European shelf seas; Dynamic downscaling; Unforced climate variability; Present-day control simulation","OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2020,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2020-10-05","DateCreate":"2020-10-05","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000551401100001","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1007/s00382-020-05378-0"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":329878,"PubliDate":2020,"Pagination":"2207-2236","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"55","Issue":"7-8","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":45579,"SerRR":"Climate Dynamics. 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