Document of bibliographic reference 330860

BibliographicReference record

Type

Bibliographic resource

Type of document

Journal article

BibLvlCode

AS

Title

European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios

Abstract

The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate-induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate-related local extinctions were expected in the south-eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi-SDM, multi-GCM, multi-RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.

WebOfScience code

https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000581825300001

Bibliographic citation

Schickele, A.; Goberville, E.; Leroy, B.; Beaugrand, G.; Hattab, T.; Francour, P.; Raybaud, V. (2021). European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios. Fish Fish. 22(1): 212-225. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/faf.12515

Topic

Marine

Is peer reviewed

true

Access rights

open access

Is accessible for free

true