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Using simulation models based on Falkland Island Patagonian squid (<i>Loligo gahi</i>), the recruit abundance of which is predicted by sea-surface temperature, we propose a method for using predictive relationships in the management of squid populations. We compare a management strategy based on recruitment prediction with historical data from the fishery, which was managed in the absence of these predictions. Our results suggest that varying effort on the basis of an environmental correlate of recruitment can reduce the risk of not meeting conservation targets while increasing yield. Effort has to be reduced in years of low abundance but licensing additional effort in years of high abundance increases long-term average catches. 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