{"refrec":{"BRefID":345708,"RR":"<b>Geiger, T.; Gütschow, J.; Bresch, D.N.; Emanuel, K.; Frieler, K.</b> (2021). Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure. <i>Nat. Clim. Chang. 11(10)</i>: 861-866. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9</a>","BEntID":342343,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nat. Clim. Chang. 11(10)</i>: 861-866. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Geiger, T.; Gütschow, J.; Bresch, D.N.; Emanuel, K.; Frieler, K.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Geiger, T. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts are expected to worsen under continued global warming and socio-economic development. Here we combine TC simulations with an impact model to quantify country-level population exposure to TC winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions. We estimate an annual global TC exposure increase of 26% (33 million people) for a 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature, assuming present-day population. The timing of warming matters when additionally accounting for population change, with global population projected to peak around mid-century and decline thereafter. A middle-of-the-road socio-economic scenario combined with 2 °C of warming around 2050 increases exposure by 41% (52 million). A stronger mitigation scenario reaching 2 °C around 2100 limits this increase to 20% (25 million). Rapid climate action therefore avoids interference with peak global population timing and limits climate-change-driven exposure. Cumulatively, over 1.8 billion people could be saved by 2100.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-16 01:33:28.235597","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2021,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2021-10-08","DateCreate":"2021-10-08","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000700999900005","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":345708,"PubliDate":2021,"Pagination":"861-866","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"11","Issue":"10","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":218223,"SerRR":"Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London.  ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Climate Change","ISSN":"1758-678X","AbbrevSer":"Nat. Clim. Chang.","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":861,"Pages":6,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Geiger","Firstname":"Tobias","Initials":"T.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":342343,"AutID":467540,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Gütschow","Firstname":"Johannes","Initials":"J.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":342343,"AutID":467541,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Bresch","Firstname":"David","Initials":"D.N.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":342343,"AutID":457116,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Emanuel","Firstname":"Kerry","Initials":"K.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":342343,"AutID":54663,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Frieler","Firstname":"Katja","Initials":"K.","Affiliation":"Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":342343,"AutID":310526,"OrderNr":5,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":368777,"LibID":36,"BRefID":345708,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":null,"ShelfLocCode":"368777","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"Interne VLIZ documenten","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Non-open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":228,"Classification":"Non-open access","ReqLink":1,"ClassifTypID":3,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":1,"InternalReq":1,"LoggedInReq":1,"Disclaimer":"Disclaimer_VLIZ_Intern","DutchDisclaimer":"<p>Deze publicatie is enkel beschikbaar voor persoonlijk gebruik binnen de Innovocean site <br />en mag op geen enkele manier verder worden verspreid.</p>","FileFormat":".pdf","FileDescr":"pdf","InsPub":1,"InsID":36,"FileFormID":6,"LendableFlag":1,"PublicFlag":1,"orderLib":"A","Notes":null,"AccConID":null,"AccessConstraint":null,"LicURL":null}],"litstyles":null,"thespers":null,"arch2discl":null,"SERpubls":[{"PublName":"Nature Publishing Group","City":"London"}],"MONpubls":null,"pictures":[],"thestermsPath":null,"thestermsASFA":null,"taxtermsASFA":null,"geotermsASFA":null,"collections":null,"conf":null,"proj":null,"Physdatasets":null,"spcols":null,"doi":null,"publs":null,"serparttypes":null,"monauthors":null,"MParts":null,"SParts":null,"hLibs":null,"langs":[{"BEntID":342343,"AbstractFlag":0,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"},{"BEntID":342343,"AbstractFlag":1,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"}],"urls":[{"URL":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9","externalID":"10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9","URLTypeCode":"DOI","URLID":97194,"URLTypID":13,"URLType":"DOI","URLPrefix":"http://dx.doi.org/"}],"thesterms":null,"taxterms":null,"geoterms":null,"othterms":null,"asfacodes":null,"asfa2codes":null,"thestermsFRIS":null,"taxtermsFRIS":null,"geotermsFRIS":null,"othtermsFRIS":null,"resmessage":"","complete":1,"sessions":{"newSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","newSesDate":{"date":"2021-10-08 09:26:11.153000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"},"updSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","updSesDate":{"date":"2021-10-08 09:26:11.153000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"}}}