{"refrec":{"BRefID":347503,"RR":"<b>Selva, J.; Lorito, S.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Tonini, R.; Perfetti, P.; Bernardi, F.; Taroni, M.; Scala, A.; Babeyko, A.; Lovholt, F.; Gibbons, S.J.; Macías, J.; Castro, M.J.; González-Vida, J.M.; Sánchez-Linares, C.; Bayraktar, H.B.; Basili, R.; Maesano, F.E.; Tiberti, M.M.; Mele, F.; Piatanesi, A.; Amato, A.</b> (2021). Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning. <i>Nature Comm. 12(1)</i>: 5677. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w</a>","BEntID":344195,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nature Comm. 12(1)</i>: 5677. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Selva, J.; Lorito, S.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Tonini, R.; Perfetti, P.; Bernardi, F.; Taroni, M.; Scala, A.; Babeyko, A.; Lovholt, F.; Gibbons, S.J.; Macías, J.; Castro, M.J.; González-Vida, J.M.; Sánchez-Linares, C.; Bayraktar, H.B.; Basili, R.; Maesano, F.E.; Tiberti, M.M.; Mele, F.; Piatanesi, A.; Amato, A.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Selva, J. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"Tsunami warning centres face the challenging task of rapidly forecasting tsunami threat immediately after an earthquake, when there is high uncertainty due to data deficiency. Here we introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) for tsunami early warning. PTF explicitly treats data- and forecast-uncertainties, enabling alert level definitions according to any predefined level of conservatism, which is connected to the average balance of missed-vs-false-alarms. Impact forecasts and resulting recommendations become progressively less uncertain as new data become available. Here we report an implementation for near-source early warning and test it systematically by hindcasting the great 2010 M8.8 Maule (Chile) and the well-studied 2003 M6.8 Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Algeria) tsunamis, as well as all the Mediterranean earthquakes that triggered alert messages at the Italian Tsunami Warning Centre since its inception in 2015, demonstrating forecasting accuracy over a wide range of magnitudes and earthquake types.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-04 01:31:42.855562","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2021,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2021-11-23","DateCreate":"2021-11-23","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000701980200020","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":347503,"PubliDate":2021,"Pagination":"5677","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"12","Issue":"1","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":198717,"SerRR":"Nature Communications. Nature Publishing Group: London.  ISSN 2041-1723; e-ISSN 2041-1723","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Communications","ISSN":"2041-1723","AbbrevSer":"Nature Comm.","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":5677,"Pages":null,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Selva","Firstname":null,"Initials":"J.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470667,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Lorito","Firstname":null,"Initials":"S.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470668,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Volpe","Firstname":null,"Initials":"M.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470669,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Romano","Firstname":null,"Initials":"F.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470670,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Tonini","Firstname":"Roberto","Initials":"R.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":461839,"OrderNr":5,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Perfetti","Firstname":null,"Initials":"P.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470671,"OrderNr":6,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Bernardi","Firstname":null,"Initials":"F.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470672,"OrderNr":7,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Taroni","Firstname":null,"Initials":"M.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470673,"OrderNr":8,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Scala","Firstname":null,"Initials":"A.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470674,"OrderNr":9,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Babeyko","Firstname":null,"Initials":"A.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470675,"OrderNr":10,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Lovholt","Firstname":null,"Initials":"F.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":255818,"OrderNr":11,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Gibbons","Firstname":null,"Initials":"S.J.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470676,"OrderNr":12,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Macías","Firstname":null,"Initials":"J.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":462968,"OrderNr":13,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Castro","Firstname":null,"Initials":"M.J.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":4837,"OrderNr":14,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"González-Vida","Firstname":null,"Initials":"J.M.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":462964,"OrderNr":15,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Sánchez-Linares","Firstname":null,"Initials":"C.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470677,"OrderNr":16,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Bayraktar","Firstname":null,"Initials":"H.B.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470678,"OrderNr":17,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Basili","Firstname":null,"Initials":"R.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470679,"OrderNr":18,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Maesano","Firstname":null,"Initials":"F.E.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470680,"OrderNr":19,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Tiberti","Firstname":null,"Initials":"M.M.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470681,"OrderNr":20,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Mele","Firstname":null,"Initials":"F.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470682,"OrderNr":21,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Piatanesi","Firstname":null,"Initials":"A.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":147465,"OrderNr":22,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Amato","Firstname":null,"Initials":"A.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":344195,"AutID":470683,"OrderNr":23,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":369393,"LibID":36,"BRefID":347503,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":1,"ShelfLocCode":"369393","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"VLIZ Open Access","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":53,"Classification":"Open access","ReqLink":null,"ClassifTypID":1,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":null,"InternalReq":0,"LoggedInReq":0,"Disclaimer":null,"DutchDisclaimer":null,"FileFormat":".pdf","FileDescr":"pdf","InsPub":1,"InsID":36,"FileFormID":6,"LendableFlag":1,"PublicFlag":1,"orderLib":"A","Notes":null,"AccConID":null,"AccessConstraint":null,"LicURL":null}],"litstyles":null,"thespers":null,"arch2discl":null,"SERpubls":[{"PublName":"Nature Publishing Group","City":"London"}],"MONpubls":null,"pictures":[],"thestermsPath":null,"thestermsASFA":null,"taxtermsASFA":null,"geotermsASFA":null,"collections":[{"Collection":"VLIZ Acknowledged Publications","ShortName":"VLIZ ackn"}],"conf":null,"proj":null,"Physdatasets":null,"spcols":{"39":{"SpName":"VLIZ Acknowledged Publications","SpColID":39,"ParSpColID":null,"TopParID":null,"ShortName":"VLIZ ackn","URLLocation":null,"LibID":36,"OpenRepoFlag":null,"SpTypID":null,"TopParIDNotWebsite":null,"SpColPath":"VLIZ ackn"}},"doi":null,"publs":null,"serparttypes":null,"monauthors":null,"MParts":null,"SParts":null,"hLibs":null,"langs":[{"BEntID":344195,"AbstractFlag":0,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"},{"BEntID":344195,"AbstractFlag":1,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"}],"urls":[{"URL":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w","externalID":"10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w","URLTypeCode":"DOI","URLID":97720,"URLTypID":13,"URLType":"DOI","URLPrefix":"http://dx.doi.org/"}],"thesterms":null,"taxterms":null,"geoterms":null,"othterms":null,"asfacodes":null,"asfa2codes":null,"thestermsFRIS":null,"taxtermsFRIS":null,"geotermsFRIS":null,"othtermsFRIS":null,"resmessage":"","complete":1,"sessions":{"newSesName":"Bouchti, Zohra, Z.","newSesDate":{"date":"2021-11-23 09:52:42.327000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"},"updSesName":"Bouchti, Zohra, Z.","updSesDate":{"date":"2021-11-23 09:52:42.327000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"}}}