{"refrec":{"BRefID":348989,"RR":"<b>Plancke, Y.; Stark, J.; Mostaert, F.</b> (2021). Operationele voorspelling dwarsstromingen Platen van Ossenisse: deelrapport 1. Predictie van dwarsstroming. Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 20_060_1. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen. VI, 17 pp. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/61\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/61</a>","BEntID":346684,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":0,"vabbflag":0,"RefStringPartII":". Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 20_060_1. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen.  VI, 17 pp. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/61\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/61</a>","DocTypID":13,"DocType":"Reports","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Plancke, Y.; Stark, J.; Mostaert, F.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Plancke, Y.; Stark, J.; Mostaert, F.","Englishabstract":null,"AbstractOtherLang":"In voorliggend rapport is een verkenning gebeurd naar de haalbaarheid van het vergroten van de voorspelhorizon voor het bijstellen van de waarschuwing van de dwarsstroming ter hoogte van de oostrand van de Platen van Ossenisse. Momenteel wordt de astronomische voorspelling pas enkele uren voorafgaand aan het hoogwater bijgesteld met de voorspelde waterstanden. De operationele modellen hebben echter een voorspelhorizon tot 10 dagen vooruit. In het kader van de opmaak van de planning van de op- en afvarende zeevaart in het Schelde-estuarium, is een voorspelhorizon van 1 à 2 dagen gewenst.<br>Op basis van 2 periodes (één zonder, één met waarschuwing op basis van de astronomische voorspelling) is een voorspelling gemaakt van de te verwachten dwarsstroming. Deze voorspelling gebeurde aan de hand van de voorspelde waterstanden met het DCSM FM model, aangedreven door ECMWF meteo-condities. De uit voorspelde waterstanden afgeleide parameters (in casu het verval of de stijgsnelheid) werden op basis van relaties opgesteld in eerder onderzoek door Deltares, omgerekend naar een voorspelde sterkte van de dwarsstroming. Deze uit waterstandsvoorspelling afgeleide waarden werden vergeleken met de afgeleide dwarsstroming uit de waterstandsmetingen. <br>Uit deze verkenning is gebleken dat de variatie op de voorspelde dwarsstroming ten gevolge van de voorspelhorizon van eenzelfde grootteorde is als de afwijking tussen de astronomische voorspelling en operationele modelvoorspelling die expliciet rekening houdt met de meteo-condities. De afwijking tussen de uit de feitelijke metingen afgeleide dwarsstroming en de operationele modelvoorspelling is kleiner dan de afwijking tussen de uit de feitelijke metingen afgeleide dwarsstroming en de astronomische voorspelling als de voorspelde dwarsstroming op basis van het vervalcriterium wordt ingeschat. Op basis van de stijgsnelheid is het verschil tussen de astronomische voorspelling en de operationele modelvoorspelling kleiner. De stijgsnelheid geeft over het algemeen een betere overeenstemming tussen de voorspellingen en de waarnemingen. Er wordt voorgesteld deze nieuwe benadering verder te onderzoeken, door ze in de komende maanden mee op te nemen naast de reguliere methodiek. ","BibLvlCode":"MS","StandardTitle":"Operationele voorspelling dwarsstromingen Platen van Ossenisse: deelrapport 1. 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