{"refrec":{"BRefID":359546,"RR":"<b>Plancke, Y.; Stark, J.</b> (2022). Dwarsstromingen Platen van Ossenisse: deelrapport 1. Verbeteren van de langetermijn predictie op basis van astronomische voorspellingen. Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 22_060_1. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen. VII, 13 + 2 p. bijl. pp. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/137\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/137</a>","BEntID":357261,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":0,"vabbflag":0,"RefStringPartII":". Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 22_060_1. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen.  VII, 13 + 2 p. bijl. pp. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/137\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/137</a>","DocTypID":13,"DocType":"Reports","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Plancke, Y.; Stark, J.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Plancke, Y.; Stark, J.","Englishabstract":null,"AbstractOtherLang":"Ter hoogte van de Platen van Ossenisse treden bij sterke springtijen rond het moment van hoogwater  dwarsstromingen op, die een potentieel risico kunnen vormen voor de scheepvaart. Door de  Gemeenschappelijke Nautische Autoriteit (GNA) worden er daarom jaarlijks voorwaarschuwingen  gepubliceerd, waarin de momenten van “matige” en “sterke” dwarsstroming worden weergegeven. Sinds  2021 is er echter een redelijke discrepantie tussen de voormelding op basis van astronomisch voorspelde  waterstanden en de waarschuwing 24u vooraf op basis van de operationele modellen.<br>Binnen voorliggend rapport is onderzocht wat de oorzaak van dit verschil is. Uit het onderzoek blijkt dat dit  toe te schrijven is aan de dataset die gebruikt wordt voor het bepalen van de harmonische componenten  voor de astronomische voorspelling van de waterstanden. Vanaf 2021 worden de componenten gebruikt  afgeleid uit de meetdata 2015-2018. Deze componenten geven over het algemeen aanleiding tot betere  waterstandsvoorspellingen, maar het maximale verval tussen Terneuzen en Hansweert wordt juist minder  goed gerepresenteerd. Deze parameter is cruciaal voor het opmaken van de voormelding van de  dwarsstroming nabij de Platen van Ossenisse.<br>Daarnaast is in dit rapport gekeken op welke manier de voormelding kan verbeterd worden. Hiervoor is een  regressie opgemaakt tussen het voorspelde en gemeten maximale verval tussen Terneuzen en Hansweert  voor 2021. De lineaire relatie die aanwezig bleek te zijn, is vervolgens toegepast als correctie op de  voorspelde waarden voor 2022. De alzo bekomen waarden werden voor de eerste jaarhelft van 2022 reeds  vergeleken met de waarschuwingen uit de 24u-voorspellingen (voorspelmodellen), terwijl ook een predictie  voor de tweede jaarhelft van 2022 gemaakt.<br>Voor de toekomstige voorwaarschuwingen wordt voorgesteld om oftewel de voorspelde vervallen te  corrigeren met de gevonden lineaire relatie, oftewel de gehanteerde grenswaarden voor matige en sterke  dwarsstroming aan te passen. Beide voorstellen hebben een identiek effect en zullen ervoor zorgen dat de  lange termijn voorwaarschuwing nauwer aansluit bij de korte termijn voorspellingen.  ","BibLvlCode":"MS","StandardTitle":"Dwarsstromingen Platen van Ossenisse: deelrapport 1. 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