{"refrec":{"BRefID":359734,"RR":"<b>Hagan, D.F.T.; Dolman, H.A.J.; Wang, G.; Sian, K.T.C.L.K.; Yang, K.; Ullah, W.; Shen, R.</b> (2022). Contrasting ecosystem constraints on seasonal terrestrial CO<sub>2</sub> and mean surface air temperature causality projections by the end of the 21st century. <i>Environ. Res. Lett. 17(12)</i>: 124019. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca551\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca551</a>","BEntID":357449,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Environ. Res. Lett. 17(12)</i>: 124019. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca551\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca551</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Hagan, D.F.T.; Dolman, H.A.J.; Wang, G.; Sian, K.T.C.L.K.; Yang, K.; Ullah, W.; Shen, R.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Hagan, D.F.T. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"<p>    Two centuries of studies have demonstrated the importance of understanding    the interaction between air temperature and carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>)    emissions, which can impact the climate system and human life in various    ways, and across different timescales. While historical interactions have    been consistently studied, the nature of future interactions and the    impacts of confounding factors still require more investigation in keeping    with the continuous updates of climate projections to the end of the 21st    century. Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), like    its earlier projects, provides ScenarioMIP multi-model projections to    assess the climate under different radiative forcings ranging from a    low-end (SSP1–2.6) to a high-end (SSP5–8.5) pathway. In this study, we    analyze the localized causal structure of CO<sub>2,</sub> and near-surface    mean air temperature (meanT) interaction for four scenarios from three    CMIP6 models using a rigorous multivariate information flow (IF) causality,which can separate the cause from the effect within the interaction (CO    <sub>2</sub>–meanT and meanT–CO<sub>2</sub>) by measuring the rate of IF    between parameters. First, we obtain patterns of the CO<sub>2</sub> and    meanT causal structures over space and time. We found a contrasting    emission-based impact of soil moisture (SM) and vegetation (leaf area index    (LAI)) changes on the meanT–CO<sub>2</sub> causal patterns. That is, SM    influenced CO<sub>2</sub> sink regions in SSP1–2.6 and source regions in    SSP5–8.5, and vice versa found for LAI influences. On the other hand, they    function similarly to constrain the future CO<sub>2</sub> impact on meanT.    These findings are essential for improving long-term predictability where    climate models might be limited.</p>","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Contrasting ecosystem constraints on seasonal terrestrial CO<sub>2</sub> and mean surface air temperature causality projections by the end of the 21st century","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-10 01:32:46.870176","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":"CO<sub>2</i>–temperature causality; LAI; soil moisture; CMIP6; information flow causality","OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2022,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2022-12-15","DateCreate":"2022-12-15","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:000892891600001","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1088/1748-9326/aca551"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":359734,"PubliDate":2022,"Pagination":"124019","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"17","Issue":"12","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":204699,"SerRR":"Environmental Research Letters. 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