Document of bibliographic reference 36336

BibliographicReference record

Type

Bibliographic resource

Type of document

Journal article

BibLvlCode

AS

Title

Incorporating time-series structure in medium-term recruitment projections

Abstract

One of the key tasks in current fisheries research is to improve the performance, in terms of accuracy and utility, of projections of recruitment-driven population dynamics in the medium-term. Reliable indications of the median level and variability of recruitment over a five- to ten-year time-scale would be invaluable in the determination of appropriate levels of fishing mortality, in order to attempt to maintain sustainable fish stocks. Building upon the stochastic simulation approach currently adopted within ICES stock assessment working groups, this paper investigates the use of time-series models to characterise the historical development of residuals to fitted stock-recruitment models. We use the probability of SSB (spawning stock biomass) falling below B_pa (precautionary value of spawning stock biomass) over a range of multipliers on imposed fishing mortality as a diagnostic statistic to compare projections. Case studies of commercially-important fish stocks are presented (North Sea cod, haddock and whiting), and the potential implications of the new approaches for fisheries management are discussed.

WebOfScience code

https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000183403500015

Bibliographic citation

Needle, C.L.; O'Brien, C.M.; Darby, C.D.; Smith, M.T. (2003). Incorporating time-series structure in medium-term recruitment projections. Sci. Mar. (Barc.) 67(S1): 201-209. https://dx.doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1201

Topic

Marine

Is peer reviewed

true

Access rights

open access

Is accessible for free

true