{"refrec":{"BRefID":381184,"RR":"<b>Ling, S.D.; Keane, J.P.</b> (2024). Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse. <i>Nature Comm. 15(1)</i>: 400. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x</a>","BEntID":378925,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nature Comm. 15(1)</i>: 400. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":1,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Ling, S.D.; Keane, J.P.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Ling, S.D.; Keane, J.P.","Englishabstract":"Climate change is progressively redistributing species towards the Earth’s poles, indicating widespread potential for ecosystem collapse. Detecting early-warning-signals and enacting adaptation measures is therefore a key imperative for humanity. However, detecting early-warning signals has remained elusive and has focused on exceptionally high-frequency and/ or long-term time-series, which are generally unattainable for most ecosystems that are under-sampled and already impacted by warming. Here, we show that a catastrophic phase-shift in kelp ecosystems, caused by range-extension of an overgrazing sea urchin, also propagates poleward. Critically, we show that incipient spatial-pattern-formations of kelp overgrazing are detectable well-in-advance of collapse along temperate reefs in the ocean warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Demonstrating poleward progression of collapse over 15 years, these early-warning ‘incipient barrens’ are now widespread along 500 km of coast with projections indicating that half of all kelp beds within this range-extension region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was positively associated with deep boulder-reefs, yet negatively associated with predatory lobsters and subordinate abalone competitors, which have both been intensively fished. Climate-driven collapse of ecosystems is occurring; however, by looking equatorward, space-for-time substitutions can enable practical detection of early-warning spatial-pattern-formations, allowing local climate adaptation measures to be enacted in advance.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-05 01:31:36.395311","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2024,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2024-01-22","DateCreate":"2024-01-22","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":null,"VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":381184,"PubliDate":2024,"Pagination":"400","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"15","Issue":"1","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":198717,"SerRR":"Nature Communications. 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