{"refrec":{"BRefID":381455,"RR":"<b>Turner, F.E.; Malagon Santos, V.; Edwards, T.L.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Nicholls, R.J.; Le Cozannet, G.; O’Neill, J.F.; Adhikari, M.</b> (2023). Illustrative multi‐centennial projections of global mean sea‐level rise and their application. <i>Earth's Future 11(12)</i>: e2023EF003550. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550</a>","BEntID":379196,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":0,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Earth's Future 11(12)</i>: e2023EF003550. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Turner, F.E.; Malagon Santos, V.; Edwards, T.L.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Nicholls, R.J.; Le Cozannet, G.; O’Neill, J.F.; Adhikari, M.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Turner, F.E. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"<span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(0,0,0);\">We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6&nbsp;m at 2300 and 3.3&nbsp;m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise.</span>","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Illustrative multi‐centennial projections of global mean sea‐level rise and their application","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2024-12-10 01:33:17.368041","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+01:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2023,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2024-02-05","DateCreate":"2024-02-05","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:001117879500001","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1029/2023ef003550"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":381455,"PubliDate":2023,"Pagination":"e2023EF003550","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"11","Issue":"12","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":238930,"SerRR":"Earth's Future. 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