{"refrec":{"BRefID":406314,"RR":"<b>Terhaar, J.; Burger, F.A.; Vogt, L.; Frölicher, T.L.; Stocker, T.F.</b> (2025). Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected. <i>Nature (Lond.) 639(8056)</i>: 942-946. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z</a>","BEntID":404112,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nature (Lond.) 639(8056)</i>: 942-946. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Terhaar, J.; Burger, F.A.; Vogt, L.; Frölicher, T.L.; Stocker, T.F.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Terhaar, J. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"Global ocean surface temperatures were at record levels for more than a year from April 2023&nbsp;onwards, exceeding the previous record in 2015–2016 by 0.25 °C on average between April 2023 and March 2024<a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z#ref-CR1\"><sup>1</sup></a>. The nearly global extent and unprecedented intensity of this event prompted questions about how exceptional it was and whether climate models can represent such record-shattering jumps in surface ocean temperatures<a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z#ref-CR2\"><sup>2</sup></a>. Here we construct observation-based synthetic time series to show that a jump in global sea surface temperatures that breaks the previous record by at least 0.25 °C is a 1-in-512-year event under the current long-term warming trend (1-in-205-year to 1-in-1,185-year event; 95% confidence interval). Without a global warming trend, such an event would have been practically impossible. Using 270 simulations from a wide range of fully coupled climate models, we show that these models successfully simulate such record-shattering jumps in global ocean surface temperatures, underpinning the models’ usefulness in understanding the characteristics, drivers and consequences of such events. These model simulations suggest that the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-11 01:33:16.762460","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2025,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2025-03-27","DateCreate":"2025-03-27","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":null,"VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":406314,"PubliDate":2025,"Pagination":"942-946","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"639","Issue":"8056","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":43431,"SerRR":"Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science. 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ISSN 0028-0836; e-ISSN 1476-4687","StandardTitleSer":"Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science","ISSN":"0028-0836","AbbrevSer":"Nature (Lond.)","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":942,"Pages":5,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Terhaar","Firstname":"Jens","Initials":"J.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":404112,"AutID":419401,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":"0000-0001-9377-415X","PersID":36678,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Burger","Firstname":"Friedrich","Initials":"F.A.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":404112,"AutID":441356,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Vogt","Firstname":"Linus","Initials":"L.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":404112,"AutID":583589,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Frölicher","Firstname":"Thomas","Initials":"T.L.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":404112,"AutID":205660,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Stocker","Firstname":"Thomas","Initials":"T.F.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":404112,"AutID":26012,"OrderNr":5,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":412106,"LibID":36,"BRefID":406314,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":1,"ShelfLocCode":"412106","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"VLIZ Open Access","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":53,"Classification":"Open access","ReqLink":null,"ClassifTypID":1,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":null,"InternalReq":0,"LoggedInReq":0,"Disclaimer":null,"DutchDisclaimer":null,"FileFormat":".pdf","FileDescr":"pdf","InsPub":1,"InsID":36,"FileFormID":6,"LendableFlag":null,"PublicFlag":1,"orderLib":"A","Notes":null,"AccConID":null,"AccessConstraint":null,"LicURL":null}],"litstyles":null,"thespers":null,"arch2discl":null,"SERpubls":[{"PublName":"Nature Publishing Group","City":"London"}],"MONpubls":null,"pictures":[],"thestermsPath":null,"thestermsASFA":null,"taxtermsASFA":null,"geotermsASFA":null,"collections":null,"conf":null,"proj":null,"Physdatasets":null,"spcols":null,"doi":null,"publs":null,"serparttypes":null,"monauthors":null,"MParts":null,"SParts":null,"hLibs":null,"langs":[{"BEntID":404112,"AbstractFlag":0,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"},{"BEntID":404112,"AbstractFlag":1,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"}],"urls":[{"URL":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z","externalID":"10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z","URLTypeCode":"DOI","URLID":144580,"URLTypID":13,"URLType":"DOI","URLPrefix":"http://dx.doi.org/"}],"thesterms":null,"taxterms":null,"geoterms":null,"othterms":null,"asfacodes":null,"asfa2codes":null,"thestermsFRIS":null,"taxtermsFRIS":null,"geotermsFRIS":null,"othtermsFRIS":null,"resmessage":"","complete":1,"sessions":{"newSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","newSesDate":{"date":"2025-03-27 09:18:48.773000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"},"updSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","updSesDate":{"date":"2025-03-27 09:18:48.773000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"}}}