{"refrec":{"BRefID":435805,"RR":"<b>Burgard, C.; Jourdain, N.C.; Mosbeux, C.; Caillet, J.; Mathiot, P.; Kittel, C.</b> (2025). Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves. <i>Nature (Lond.) 647(8088)</i>: 102-108. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w</a>","BEntID":433635,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nature (Lond.) 647(8088)</i>: 102-108. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Burgard, C.; Jourdain, N.C.; Mosbeux, C.; Caillet, J.; Mathiot, P.; Kittel, C.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Burgard, C. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"The disappearance of ice shelves, the floating margins of the Antarctic ice sheet that restrain the ice flow into the ocean1,2,3, would strongly accelerate the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise4,5,6. Their viability in a warming world has motivated substantial work that focuses on the influence of the warming atmosphere7,8,9,10. Here we revisit the concept of ice-shelf viability in a holistic manner, taking into account mass loss due to both the atmosphere and the ocean to estimate when it becomes almost impossible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape. We show that for a scenario in which global warming remains largely below 2 °C, only 1 out of 64 ice shelves will become likely non-viable by 2300. For a scenario in which global warming reaches nearly 12 °C by 2300, many ice shelves become non-viable once global warming exceeds 4.5 °C, loss that is mainly due to an increase in ocean-induced melt. By 2150 and 2300, 26 and 38 ice shelves, respectively, become likely non-viable. Loss of ice-sheet regions restrained by these 38 ice shelves represent a sea-level rise potential of 10 m. Our estimates are latest bounds for reaching non-viability, and ice-shelf collapse could occur even earlier, in particular owing to the synergy with hydrofracturing.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-04-19 01:32:31.956682","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2025,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2025-11-06","DateCreate":"2025-11-06","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":null,"VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0,"DOI":"10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":435805,"PubliDate":2025,"Pagination":"102-108","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"647","Issue":"8088","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":43431,"SerRR":"Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science. 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