{"refrec":{"BRefID":437115,"RR":"<b>Coulon, V.; Klose, A.K.; Edwards, T.; Turner, F.; Pattyn, F.; Winkelmann, R.</b> (2025). From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. <i>Nature Comm. 16(1)</i>: 16. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w</a>","BEntID":434945,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":1,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Nature Comm. 16(1)</i>: 16. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w</a>","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Coulon, V.; Klose, A.K.; Edwards, T.; Turner, F.; Pattyn, F.; Winkelmann, R.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Coulon, V. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"Robust projections of future sea-level rise are essential for coastal adaptation, yet they remain hampered by uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet projections–the largest potential contributor to sea-level change under global warming. Here, we combine two ice-sheet models, systematically sample parametric and climate uncertainties, and calibrate against historical observations to quantify Antarctic ice-sheet changes to 2300 and beyond. By 2300, the projected Antarctic sea-level contributions range from -0.09 m to +1.74 m under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, outer limits of 5-95% probability intervals), and from +0.73 m to +5.95 m under very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Irrespective of the wide range of uncertainties explored, large-scale Antarctic ice-sheet retreat is triggered under SSP5-8.5, while reaching net-zero emissions well before 2100 strongly reduces multi-centennial ice loss. Yet, even under such strong mitigation, a significant sea-level contribution could still result from West Antarctica. Our results suggest that current mitigation efforts may not be sufficient to avoid self-sustained Antarctic ice loss, making emission decisions taken in the coming years decisive for future sea-level rise.","AbstractOtherLang":null,"BibLvlCode":"AS","StandardTitle":"From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet","OrigTitleLangCode":"en","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"eng","OrigTitleLangID":15,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-10 01:33:04.481002","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":null,"OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":2025,"MonPub":null,"DateUpdate":"2026-01-16","DateCreate":"2026-01-13","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":1,"VlizCoreFlag":1,"WoScode":"WOS:001631363900011","VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":1,"DOI":"10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w"},"refs":null,"anarec":{"AnaID":437115,"PubliDate":2025,"Pagination":"16","XtraPublOfAnaID":null,"ISBN":null,"Volume":"16","Issue":"1","BRefMon":null,"BRefMonRR":null,"BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerBRefID":198717,"SerRR":"Nature Communications. Nature Publishing Group: London.  ISSN 2041-1723; e-ISSN 2041-1723","StandardTitleSer":"Nature Communications","ISSN":"2041-1723","AbbrevSer":"Nature Comm.","StandardTitleMon":null,"StartPage":16,"Pages":null,"ToPubliDate":null,"BRefBibLvlCode":"S","SerNotes":null},"monrec":null,"serrec":null,"relations":null,"relationsRev":null,"addrec":null,"othpubs":null,"ownerships":null,"authors":[{"AutName":"Coulon","Firstname":"Violaine","Initials":"V.","Affiliation":"Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Laboratoire de Glaciologie","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":434945,"AutID":533651,"OrderNr":1,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":"Université Libre de Bruxelles; Faculté des Sciences; Département des Sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement; Laboratoire de Glaciologie","ORCID":"0000-0003-2683-7434","PersID":40249,"InsID":1978},{"AutName":"Klose","Firstname":"Ann Kristin","Initials":"A.K.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":434945,"AutID":614898,"OrderNr":2,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Edwards","Firstname":"Tamsin","Initials":"T.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":434945,"AutID":325108,"OrderNr":3,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Turner","Firstname":"Fiona","Initials":"F.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":434945,"AutID":614900,"OrderNr":4,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null},{"AutName":"Pattyn","Firstname":"Frank","Initials":"F.","Affiliation":"Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Laboratoire de Glaciologie","Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":434945,"AutID":533607,"OrderNr":5,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":"Université Libre de Bruxelles; Faculté des Sciences; Département des Sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement; Laboratoire de Glaciologie","ORCID":"0000-0003-4805-5636","PersID":14818,"InsID":1978},{"AutName":"Winkelmann","Firstname":"Ricarda","Initials":"R.","Affiliation":null,"Discriminator":null,"CorporateFlag":0,"BEntID":434945,"AutID":193108,"OrderNr":6,"DegrID":null,"EditorFlag":0,"CorrespFlag":0,"IllustratorFlag":0,"ReviserFlag":0,"TranslatorFlag":0,"InsAcronym":null,"InsFSN":null,"ORCID":null,"PersID":null,"InsID":null}],"mapdetails":null,"datasets":null,"monographs":null,"monparts":null,"serparts":null,"BEntOpen":null,"BEntPrivate":null,"availability":[{"BInstID":418786,"LibID":36,"BRefID":437115,"EmbargoDate":null,"FullEmbargoDate":null,"PhysMedID":16,"hasOCRd":1,"ShelfLocCode":"418786","RFID":null,"PaidValue":null,"Medium":"Server","Description":"VLIZ Open Access","Acronym":"VLIZ","Library":"Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee","DutchTerm":"Open access","URL":null,"ClassifID":53,"Classification":"Open access","ReqLink":null,"ClassifTypID":1,"URLLocation":"https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/","SubDir":null,"InternalReq":0,"LoggedInReq":0,"Disclaimer":null,"DutchDisclaimer":null,"FileFormat":".pdf","FileDescr":"pdf","InsPub":1,"InsID":36,"FileFormID":6,"LendableFlag":null,"PublicFlag":1,"orderLib":"A","Notes":null,"AccConID":null,"AccessConstraint":null,"LicURL":null}],"litstyles":null,"thespers":null,"arch2discl":null,"SERpubls":[{"PublName":"Nature Publishing Group","City":"London"}],"MONpubls":null,"pictures":[],"thestermsPath":null,"thestermsASFA":null,"taxtermsASFA":null,"geotermsASFA":null,"collections":[{"Collection":"OMA - Open Marien Archief","ShortName":"OMA"}],"conf":null,"proj":null,"Physdatasets":null,"spcols":{"222":{"SpName":"BMB - Belgische Mariene Bibliografie","SpColID":222,"ParSpColID":null,"TopParID":null,"ShortName":"BMB","URLLocation":null,"LibID":36,"OpenRepoFlag":null,"SpTypID":null,"TopParIDNotWebsite":null,"SpColPath":"BMB"},"221":{"SpName":"OMA - Open Marien Archief","SpColID":221,"ParSpColID":null,"TopParID":null,"ShortName":"OMA","URLLocation":null,"LibID":36,"OpenRepoFlag":1,"SpTypID":null,"TopParIDNotWebsite":null,"SpColPath":"OMA"}},"doi":null,"publs":null,"serparttypes":null,"monauthors":null,"MParts":null,"SParts":null,"hLibs":null,"langs":[{"BEntID":434945,"AbstractFlag":0,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"},{"BEntID":434945,"AbstractFlag":1,"LangID":15,"LangCode":"en","Lang":"English","DutchTerm":"Engels","LangCodeExtended":"eng"}],"urls":[{"URL":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w","externalID":"10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w","URLTypeCode":"DOI","URLID":155673,"URLTypID":13,"URLType":"DOI","URLPrefix":"http://dx.doi.org/"}],"thesterms":null,"taxterms":null,"geoterms":null,"othterms":null,"asfacodes":null,"asfa2codes":null,"thestermsFRIS":null,"taxtermsFRIS":null,"geotermsFRIS":null,"othtermsFRIS":null,"resmessage":"","complete":1,"sessions":{"newSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","newSesDate":{"date":"2026-01-13 11:38:58.500000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"},"updSesName":"Chisala, Chilekwa, C.","updSesDate":{"date":"2026-01-16 08:37:11.487000","timezone_type":3,"timezone":"Europe/Brussels"}}}