{"refrec":{"BRefID":438326,"RR":"<b>Van de Vyver, H.; Nossent, J.; Boeckx, L.; Deschamps, M.</b> (2026). Terugkeerperiode waterbom KMI: schatting van de terugkeerperiode van extreme neerslaggebeurtenissen. Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 25_010_1. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen. VII, 10 + 11 p. bijl. pp. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/376\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/376</a>","BEntID":436158,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":0,"vabbflag":0,"RefStringPartII":". Versie 4.0. <i>WL Rapporten</i>, 25_010_1. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen.  VII, 10 + 11 p. bijl. pp. <a href=\"https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/376\" target=\"_blank\">https://dx.doi.org/10.48607/376</a>","DocTypID":13,"DocType":"Reports","MarineFlag":0,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Van de Vyver, H.; Nossent, J.; Boeckx, L.; Deschamps, M.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Van de Vyver, H. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":null,"AbstractOtherLang":"Dit rapport (resultaat van een onderzoeksvraag aan het KMI) biedt een inzicht in de neerslaghoeveelheden &nbsp;die, in een aantal stroomgebieden relevant voor Vlaanderen, statistisch gezien overeen zouden kunnen &nbsp;komen met de neerslaghoeveelheden die tijdens de zogenaamde 'Waterbom' in juli'21 in het zuiden van ons &nbsp;land vielen en daar desastreuze gevolgen hadden. Er wordt rekening gehouden met het feit dat neerslag &nbsp;binnen ons land niet gelijk verdeeld is en stroomgebieden met een min of meer gelijkaardige oppervlakte &nbsp;worden vergeleken.<br>Op basis van een dagelijkse gegridde neerslag dataset van het KMI (beschikbaar vanaf 1951), wordt de &nbsp;tweedagelijkse neerslag tijdens de zogenaamde 'Waterbom' in juli '21 voor het Waalse Maasbekken en het &nbsp;kleinere deelstroomgebied van de Vesder daarin bepaald. Met een geschikte GEV-verdeling op basis van de &nbsp;jaarlijkse maximale tweedagelijkse neerslagtotalen wordt de retourperiode geschat. (Juli) 2021 werd &nbsp;hiervoor meegenomen in de fitting.<br>De tweedagelijkse neerslaghoeveelheid van 106 mm in het Waalse Maasbekken (retourperiode daar &nbsp;415 jaar) in juli '21 zou in het Belgische Scheldebekken overeenkomen met een retourperiode van 357 jaar. &nbsp;Andersom zou de neerslaghoeveelheid in het Belgische Scheldebekken die overeenkomst met een &nbsp;retourperiode van 415 jaar 110 mm zijn. Voor deze eerder grote gebieden liggen de absolute cijfers niet zo &nbsp;ver uit elkaar.<br>In het kleinere beschouwde bekken van de Vesder komt de tweedaagse neerslaghoeveel van 176.2 mm in &nbsp;juli '21 overeen met een retourperiode van 395 jaar. Een vergelijking wordt gemaakt met het Zenne- en &nbsp;Denderbekken die qua oppervlakte gelijkaardig zijn. Voor het Zennebekken komt de retourperiode van 395 &nbsp;jaar overeen met een tweedagelijkse bekkenneerslag van 146 mm. Voor het Denderbekken komt deze &nbsp;retourperiode overeen met een tweedagelijkse bekkenneerslag van 104 mm. Wanneer eenzelfde &nbsp;tweedagelijke neerslaghoeveelheid als in het Vesderbekken in juli '21 viel zou vallen boven het Zennebekken, &nbsp;zou dat overeenstemmen met terugkeerperiode van 852 jaar. De retourperiode van eenzelfde &nbsp;tweedagelijkse neerslaghoeveelheid boven het Denderbekken zou een nog extremere retourperiode van &nbsp;16722 jaar hebben. Voor deze kleinere Vlaamse gebieden zou de retourperiode van eenzelfde tweedagelijkse &nbsp;neerslaghoeveelheid als in het Vesderbekken in juli '21 dus een duidelijk veel hogere retourperiode hebben.<br>Deze schattingen van deze extreme terugkeerniveau’s en zeer grote terugkeerperioden (&gt;100 jaar) gaan &nbsp;echter gepaard met aanzienlijke onzekerheid (brede betrouwbaarheidsintervallen). Ook de invloed van het &nbsp;al-dan-niet meenemen van extreme gemeten recordwaardes (zoals die van juli'21) in het opstellen van &nbsp;verdelingen heeft veel invloed. De wetenschappelijke discussie hieromtrent is op internationaal niveau nog &nbsp;steeds gaande.","BibLvlCode":"MS","StandardTitle":"Terugkeerperiode waterbom KMI: schatting van de terugkeerperiode van extreme neerslaggebeurtenissen","OrigTitleLangCode":"nl","OrigTitleLangCodeExtended":"dut","OrigTitleLangID":41,"DateLastModified":{"date":"2026-06-04 01:37:00.726867","timezone_type":1,"timezone":"+02:00"},"UserAccessRight":null,"UserAccID":null,"AuthorKeywords":"Waterbom","OtherDescriptors":null,"Notes":null,"AnaPub":null,"MonPub":2026,"DateUpdate":"2026-03-23","DateCreate":"2026-03-23","SecASFANote":null,"ConfID":null,"PeerRev":0,"VlizCoreFlag":0,"WoScode":null,"VABBcode":null,"OpenAcc":0},"refs":null,"anarec":null,"monrec":{"MonID":438326,"ISBN":null,"PubliDate":2026,"IssueDate":null,"Volume":"25_010_1","Issue":null,"Pagination":"VII, 10 + 11 p. bijl.","Place":"Antwerpen","Edition":"Versie 4.0","BRefXtra":null,"BRefXtraRR":null,"SerID":24938,"SerRR":"WL Rapporten. 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