{"refrec":{"BRefID":56740,"RR":"<b>Watters, G.M.; Olson, R.J.; Francis, R.C.; Fiedler, P.C.; Polovina, J.J.; Reilly, S.B.; Aydin, K.Y.; Boggs, C.H.; Essington, T.E.; Walters, C.J.; Kitchell, J.F.</b> (2003). Physical forcing and the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific: simulations with ENSO-scale and global-warming climate drivers. <i>Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 60(9)</i>: 1161-1175","BEntID":54334,"PublicFlag":1,"CheckedFlag":0,"wosflag":1,"vabbflag":null,"RefStringPartII":". <i>Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 60(9)</i>: 1161-1175","DocTypID":8,"DocType":"Journal article","MarineFlag":1,"FreshFlag":0,"BrackishFlag":0,"TerrestrialFlag":0,"Authorstring":"Watters, G.M.; Olson, R.J.; Francis, R.C.; Fiedler, P.C.; Polovina, J.J.; Reilly, S.B.; Aydin, K.Y.; Boggs, C.H.; Essington, T.E.; Walters, C.J.; Kitchell, J.F.","OrigTitleTranslFlag":0,"Authorstringtrunc":"Watters, G.M. <i>et al.</i>","Englishabstract":"We used a model of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to explore how climate variation at El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scales might affect animals at middle and upper trophic levels. We developed two physical-forcing scenarios: (1) physical effects on phytoplankton biomass and (2) simultaneous physical effects on phytoplankton biomass and predator recruitment. We simulated the effects of climate-anomaly pulses, climate cycles, and global warming. Pulses caused oscillations to propagate through the ecosystem; cycles affected the shapes of these oscillations; and warming caused trends. We concluded that biomass trajectories of single populations at middle and upper trophic levels cannot be used to detect bottom-up effects, that direct physical effects on predator recruitment can be the dominant source of interannual variability in pelagic ecosystems, that such direct effects may dampen top-down control by fisheries, and that predictions about the effects of climate change may be misleading if fishing mortality is not considered. 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