Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
Morim, J.; Hemer, M.; Wang, X.L.; Cartwright, N.; Trenham, C.; Semedo, A.; Young, I.; Bricheno, L.; Camus, P.; Casas-Prat, M.; Erikson, L.; Mentaschi, L.; Mori, N.; Shimura, T.; Timmermans, B.; Aarnes, O.; Breivik, Ø.; Behrens, A.; Dobrynin, M.; Menendez, M.; Staneva, J.; Wehner, F.; Wehner, M.; Wolf, J.; Kamranzad, B.; Webb, A.; Stopa, J.; Andutta, F. (2019). Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9(9): 711–718. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Morim, J.
- Hemer, M.
- Wang, X.L.
- Cartwright, N.
- Trenham, C.
- Semedo, A.
- Young, I.
- Bricheno, L.
- Camus, P.
- Casas-Prat, M.
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- Erikson, L.
- Mentaschi, L.
- Mori, N.
- Shimura, T.
- Timmermans, B.
- Aarnes, O.
- Breivik, Ø.
- Behrens, A.
- Dobrynin, M.
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- Menendez, M.
- Staneva, J.
- Wehner, F.
- Wehner, M.
- Wolf, J.
- Kamranzad, B.
- Webb, A.
- Stopa, J.
- Andutta, F.
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| Abstract |
Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty. |
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