Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves
Burgard, C.; Jourdain, N.C.; Mosbeux, C.; Caillet, J.; Mathiot, P.; Kittel, C. (2025). Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves. Nature (Lond.) 647(8088): 102-108. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w
In: Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 0028-0836; e-ISSN 1476-4687, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Burgard, C.
- Jourdain, N.C.
- Mosbeux, C.
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- Caillet, J.
- Mathiot, P., more
- Kittel, C., more
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| Abstract |
The disappearance of ice shelves, the floating margins of the Antarctic ice sheet that restrain the ice flow into the ocean1,2,3, would strongly accelerate the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise4,5,6. Their viability in a warming world has motivated substantial work that focuses on the influence of the warming atmosphere7,8,9,10. Here we revisit the concept of ice-shelf viability in a holistic manner, taking into account mass loss due to both the atmosphere and the ocean to estimate when it becomes almost impossible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape. We show that for a scenario in which global warming remains largely below 2 °C, only 1 out of 64 ice shelves will become likely non-viable by 2300. For a scenario in which global warming reaches nearly 12 °C by 2300, many ice shelves become non-viable once global warming exceeds 4.5 °C, loss that is mainly due to an increase in ocean-induced melt. By 2150 and 2300, 26 and 38 ice shelves, respectively, become likely non-viable. Loss of ice-sheet regions restrained by these 38 ice shelves represent a sea-level rise potential of 10 m. Our estimates are latest bounds for reaching non-viability, and ice-shelf collapse could occur even earlier, in particular owing to the synergy with hydrofracturing. |
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