Rising worldwide challenges to climate-induced extreme low-production events of photovoltaic and wind power
Wang, Q.; Liu, K.; Wang, M.; Zhang, Z.; Chen, H.; Liu, L.; Wu, J.; Zheng, H. (2026). Rising worldwide challenges to climate-induced extreme low-production events of photovoltaic and wind power. Nature Comm. 17(1): 734. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67428-7
In: Nature Communications. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2041-1723; e-ISSN 2041-1723, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Wang, Q.
- Liu, K.
- Wang, M.
- Zhang, Z.
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- Chen, H.
- Liu, L.
- Wu, J.
- Zheng, H.
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| Abstract |
The global shift toward solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power is crucial to climate mitigation, yet climate change may intensify extreme low-production (ELP) events and affect power reliability. Here, we assess future ELP changes under low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP3-7.0) greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions scenarios. Even under SSP1-2.6, rising ELP risks are projected to affect more than one-third of global regions, expanding to nearly two-thirds under SSP3-7.0, regardless of whether systems rely on PV, wind, or both. Increases in ELP for wind power are nearly inevitable, with over 75% of currently installed areas experiencing 14.0–24.5% greater production anomalies by the late century. PV power diverges strongly across scenarios, shifting from a 14.8% decrease in anomaly under SSP1-2.6 to a 26.4% increase under SSP3-7.0, particularly in East Asia. Additionally, climate-induced risks disproportionately narrow the benefits of PV development in low- and lower-middle-income economies, where ELP risks rise at 1.8 times the global rate under SSP3-7.0. Our results underscore the need for coordinated mitigation and adaptation to secure power reliability in a changing climate. |
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