A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information
Islam, Md.R.; Lee, C.-Y.; Mandli, K.T.; Takagi, H. (2021). A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information. NPG Scientific Reports 11(1): 16747. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95825-7
In: Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group). Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2045-2322; e-ISSN 2045-2322, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Islam, Md.R.
- Lee, C.-Y.
- Mandli, K.T.
- Takagi, H.
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| Abstract |
This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced peak surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-min maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~ 66% of the observed variance and ~ 74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk. |
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