Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise
Sutter, J.; Jones, A.; Frölicher, T.L.; Wirths, C.; Stocker, T.F. (2023). Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13(9): 951-960. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Sutter, J.
- Jones, A.
- Frölicher, T.L.
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| Abstract |
Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a tool to reduce or avert global warming and concomitantly the risk of ice-sheet collapse, as is considered possible for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we analyse the impact of stratospheric aerosol injections on the centennial-to-millennial Antarctic sea-level contribution using an ice-sheet model. We find that mid-twenty-first-century large-scale SRM could delay but ultimately not prevent WAIS collapse in a high-emissions scenario. On intermediate-emissions pathways, SRM could be an effective tool to delay or even prevent an instability of WAIS if deployed by mid-century. However, SRM interventions may be associated with substantial risks, commitments and unintended side effects; therefore, emissions reductions to prevent WAIS collapse seem to be the more practical and sensible approach at the current stage. |
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