Quantifying the economic costs of climate change inaction for Asia and the Pacific
Campagnolo, L.; Mansi, G.; Bosello, F.; Raitzer, D.A. (2025). Quantifying the economic costs of climate change inaction for Asia and the Pacific. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, 771. Asian Development Bank: Manila. 40 pp. https://dx.doi.org/10.22617/wps250073-2
Part of: ADB Economics Working Paper Series. Asian Development Bank: Manila. ISSN 2313-6537; e-ISSN 2313-6545, more
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| Keyword |
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climate change, climate damage, computable general equilibrium, economic impact |
| Authors | | Top |
- Campagnolo, L.
- Mansi, G.
- Bosello, F.
- Raitzer, D.A.
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| Abstract |
This paper uses results from leading biophysical models in an established macro-economic
modeling framework to offer insights on potential economic consequences of climate change in
Asia and the Pacific. The analysis covers shocks in agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy
demand, capital (from sea level rise and riverine floods), and labor (from heat stress and extreme
events). The shocks are considered in a global recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium
model that breaks out major economies of the region. The modeling finds that potential total gross
domestic product loss as a result of climate change reaches 16.9% in Asia and the Pacific by
2070 under a high-end emissions scenario, with all economies negatively affected. Sea level rise
is the largest source of loss, followed by loss of labor productivity due to heat stress. Damage
function extrapolation of the losses suggests that they could reach 41.0% of gross domestic
product by 2100. |
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