| one publication added to basket [283911] | Global change: Population, land-use and vegetation in the Mediterranean basin by the mid-21st century
Le Houerou, H.N. (1990). Global change: Population, land-use and vegetation in the Mediterranean basin by the mid-21st century, in: Paepe, R. et al. Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level and Drought. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Geohydrological Management of Sea Level and Mitigation of Drought, Fuerteventura, Canary Islands (Spain), March 1-7, 1989. NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 325: pp. 301-367. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0701-0_19 In: Paepe, R. et al. (Ed.) (1990). Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level and Drought. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Geohydrological Management of Sea Level and Mitigation of Drought, Fuerteventura, Canary Islands (Spain), March 1-7, 1989. Digitized reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1990. NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 325. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht. ISBN 978-94-009-0701-0. xix, 718 pp. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0701-0, more In: NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences. D. Reidel: Dordrecht; Boston; Lancaster. ISSN 0258-2023, more |
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| Abstract | The likelihood of a temperature increase induced by the release of CO2 and other warming gases in the atmosphere is discussed. A 3°C increase in the Mediterranean Basin by the mid-21st century is retained as a plausible assumption arising from a number of Global Circulation Models. The possible consequences of such a temperature rise on vegetation, crops and land-use are analysed. On the whole, in spit of some negative aspects, the consequences would seem rather beneficial to the North of the basin. However, they would be seriously detrimental to the South due to increased aridity. In the southern basin the consequences of a possible climatic change would however be trivial by comparison with the impact of the ongoing population growth. The present 285 million people in the 14 Afro-Asian Mediterranean countries considered in the study could reach, depending on different growth scenarios and projections, a low of 0.8 billion and a high of 1.95 billion by the year 2050. The impact of such a population explosion would be similar to that arising from geological considerations, further worsened by increasing aridity from rising evapotranspiration. The northern basin would thus undergo a phase of biostasis while the southern basin would be submitted to an acute phase of rhexistasis. |
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