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Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea
Weinert, M.; Mathis, M.; Kröncke, I.; Pohlmann, T.; Reiss, H. (2021). Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea. Mar. Environ. Res. 163: 105230. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105230
In: Marine Environmental Research. Applied Science Publishers: Barking. ISSN 0141-1136; e-ISSN 1879-0291, more
Peer reviewed article  

Available in  Authors 

Keywords
    Aquatic communities > Benthos
    Climate Change
    Management > Ecosystem management
Author keywords
    Species distribution models; biomod2; Projections; Ocean warming; Benthic indicators; Macrofauna

Authors  Top 
  • Weinert, M.
  • Mathis, M.
  • Kröncke, I., more
  • Pohlmann, T.
  • Reiss, H.

Abstract
    Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change.

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