Extreme value analysis of coastal levels, with and without convolution of astronomic and storm surge components
Willems, P.; Verwaest, T. (2009). Extreme value analysis of coastal levels, with and without convolution of astronomic and storm surge components, in: McKee Smith, J. (Ed.) Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2008, Hamburg, Germany, 31 August to 5 September 2008. pp. 4099-4108. dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789814277426_0340 In: McKee Smith, J. (Ed.) (2009). Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2008, Hamburg, Germany, 31 August to 5 September 2008. World Scientific: Hackensack, NJ (USA). ISBN 978-981-4277-36-5. 5 vol. pp., more |
| Abstract | Based on a 76 years time series of high water levels along the Belgian Coast at Ostend, the extreme value distribution of total water levels is investigated, as well as the separate distributions for the astronomic component and the storm surge levels. This was done before and after removing the trend due to sea level rise, and using different approaches for selecting the extremes from the full series of coastal levels. First conclusion of the analysis is that different approaches and different independence criteria for selecting the extremes lead to identical asymptotic tail properties of the extreme value distributions. Second conclusion is that the sea level rise affects the water level quantiles only in a minor way. Third conclusion is that extreme value analysis based on convolution of the astronomic and storm surge components do not lead to more accurate results in comparison with the direct use of total water levels. |
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