Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)
Sun, S.; Pattyn, F.; Simon, E.G.; Albrecht, T.; Cornford, S.; Calov, R.; Dumas, C.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Goelzer, H.; Golledge, N.R.; Greve, R.; Hoffman, M.J.; Humbert, A.; Kazmierczak, E.; Kleiner, T.; Leguy, G.R.; Lipscomb, W.H.; Martin, D.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S.; Pollard, D.; Price, S.; Quiquet, A.; Seroussi, H.; Schlemm, T.; Sutter, J.; van de Wal, R.S.W; Winkelmann, R.; Zhang, T. (2020). Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP). J. Glaciol. 66(260): 891-904. https://hdl.handle.net/10.1017/jog.2020.67 In: Journal of Glaciology. International Glaciological Society: Cambridge. ISSN 0022-1430; e-ISSN 1727-5652, more |   |
| Author keywords | Antarctic glaciology; ice-sheet modelling; ice shelves |
| Authors | | Top | - Sun, S., more
- Pattyn, F., more
- Simon, E.G.
- Albrecht, T.
- Cornford, S.
- Calov, R.
- Dumas, C.
- Gillet-Chaulet, F.
- Goelzer, H., more
- Golledge, N.R.
| - Greve, R.
- Hoffman, M.J.
- Humbert, A.
- Kazmierczak, E., more
- Kleiner, T.
- Leguy, G.R.
- Lipscomb, W.H.
- Martin, D.
- Morlighem, M.
- Nowicki, S.
| - Pollard, D.
- Price, S.
- Quiquet, A.
- Seroussi, H.
- Schlemm, T.
- Sutter, J.
- van de Wal, R.S.W
- Winkelmann, R.
- Zhang, T.
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| Abstract | Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments. |
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