Predicting the future ocean: pathways to global ocean sustainability
Cheung, W.W.L. (2019). Predicting the future ocean: pathways to global ocean sustainability, in: Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M. et al. Predicting future oceans: Sustainability of ocean and human systems amidst global environmental change. pp. 3-15. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-817945-1.00001-0 In: Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M.; Cheung, W.W.L.; Ota, Y. (Ed.) (2019). Predicting future oceans: Sustainability of ocean and human systems amidst global environmental change. Elsevier: Amsterdam. ISBN 978-0-12-817945-1. xxvii, 554 pp. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/c2018-0-02416-0, more |
| Abstract | The ocean and its biodiversity provide ecosystem services that are important for the well-being of human societies. However, environmental impacts from human activities such as overfishing, climate change, and pollution are reducing the capacity of the ocean to support these services. We are now at the crossroads of deciding the relationship between the ocean and people. Understanding such relationships and “predicting” (or projecting) its future provide important knowledge to inform decisions and actions that shape ocean sustainability. This chapter explains the key theoretical and analytical frameworks developed by the Nippon Foundation Nereus Program that contributes to the goal of “Predicting the future ocean.” Particular focuses are put on four components: (1) characterizing the coupled human–natural marine system, (2) exploring the confidence and uncertainty in future ocean projections, (3) examining adaptation to the changing ocean, and (4) elucidating the linkages between the ocean and sustainable development. These frameworks synthesize the understanding of the functioning of marine systems and use models and scenarios to generate projections of the future ocean to inform policies and decision-making. It also helps understand the responses of human communities to the changing ocean and develop new perspectives of viewing the ocean in the context of human society. |
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