Sea level rise, surface warming, and the weakened buffering ability of South China Sea to strong typhoons in recent decades
Sun, J.; Oey, L.; Hu, F.-H.; Lin, Y.-C. (2017). Sea level rise, surface warming, and the weakened buffering ability of South China Sea to strong typhoons in recent decades. NPG Scientific Reports 7(1): 9. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07572-3
In: Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group). Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2045-2322; e-ISSN 2045-2322, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Sun, J.
- Oey, L.
- Hu, F.-H.
- Lin, Y.-C.
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| Abstract |
Strait into South China Sea (SCS). Although the storms remain above a warm open sea, the majority of them weaken due to atmospheric and oceanic environments unfavorable for typhoon intensification in SCS, which therefore serves as a natural buffer that shields the surrounding coasts from potentially more powerful storms. This study examines how this buffer has changed over inter-decadal and longer time scales. We show that the buffer weakens (i.e. greater potential for more powerful typhoons) in negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) years, as well as with sea-level-rise and surface warming, caused primarily by the deepening of the ocean’s 26 °C isotherm Z 26 . A new Intensity Change Index is proposed to describe the typhoon intensity change as a function of Z 26 and other environmental variables. In SCS, the new index accounts for as high as 75% of the total variance of typhoon intensity change. |
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