Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability
Bethke, I.; Outten, S.; Otterå, O.H.; Hawkins, E.; Wagner, S.; Sigler, M.F.; Thorne, P. (2017). Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability. Nat. Clim. Chang. 7(11): 799-805. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3394
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Bethke, I.
- Outten, S.
- Otterå, O.H.
- Hawkins, E.
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- Wagner, S.
- Sigler, M.F.
- Thorne, P.
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| Abstract |
Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability. Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios. Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records, impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)6 under RCP4.5 (ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ∼50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments. |
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