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Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming
Yang, Y.; Wu, L.; Cai, W.; Jia, F.; Ng, B.; Wang, G.; Geng, T. (2022). Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12(9): 814-821. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01444-z
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, more
Related to:
Deppenmeier, A.-L. (2022). The Atlantic Niño weakens. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12(9): 780-781. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01460-z, more
Peer reviewed article  
Available in  Authors 
Keyword
    Marine/Coastal
Authors  Top 
  • Yang, Y.
  • Wu, L.
  • Cai, W.
  • Jia, F.
  • Ng, B.
  • Wang, G.
  • Geng, T.
Abstract
    The Atlantic Niño/Niña is a dominant mode of interannual variability peaking in boreal summer with substantial climate impacts. How the Atlantic Niño/Niña sea surface temperature (SST) variability may change under greenhouse warming remains unclear. Here we find a robust suppression in future Atlantic Niño/Niña variability in models that simulate a reasonable mean climatology of the equatorial Atlantic. Under greenhouse warming, the equatorial Atlantic atmosphere becomes more stable, reducing sensitivity of the equatorial zonal winds to the zonal SST gradient; further, weakened trade winds lead to a deepened thermocline in the east, reducing SST sensitivity to thermocline anomalies. These changes feed into Bjerknes feedback to cause suppression in Atlantic Niño/Niña SST variability. These findings are in stark contrast to the Pacific and the Indian Ocean where El Niño/La Niña SST variability and strong Indian Ocean Dipole variability are projected to increase.
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