Assessment of deterministic and stochastic multi-model ocean predictions and uncertainties on acoustic propagation in shallow waters
Rixen, M.; Le Gac, J.-C.; Hermand, J.-P.; Meyer, M.; Peggion, G.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Lam, F.-P.; Shouten, M.; Demarte, M. (2007). Assessment of deterministic and stochastic multi-model ocean predictions and uncertainties on acoustic propagation in shallow waters, in: Rixen, M. et al. Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) - Coastal processes: challenges for monitoring and prediction, Lerici, 25-27 September 2007. In: Rixen, M. et al. (2007). Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) - Coastal processes: challenges for monitoring and prediction, Lerici, 25-27 September 2007. NATO Undersea Research Centre: [s.l.]. , more |
| Authors | | Top | - Rixen, M., more
- Le Gac, J.-C.
- Hermand, J.-P., more
| - Meyer, M., more
- Peggion, G.
- Ferreira-Coelho, E.
| - Lam, F.-P.
- Shouten, M.
- Demarte, M.
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| Abstract | It is well known that high environmental variability may significantly impact acoustic operations in shallow waters. In the framework of the BP07 sea trial South-East of Elba, Italy, several operational models were used to assess the uncertainty of ocean and acoustic predictions. They were further used to optimize MVP and CTD sampling strategies in the area and incorporated in super-ensemble predictions which aim at combining optimally individual forecasts. These different products were then compared and suggest that multi-model super-ensemble strategies provide more reliable predictions and further reduce the uncertainty on the environment. A sensitivity study of environmental predictions on low frequency (300 to 1800 Hz) acoustic signals was conducted. The analysis is performed within the perspective of geoacoustic inversion and conclusions are drawn about the limitations of oceanographic variability and uncertainty upon geoacoustic inversion methodologies. |
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