Skip to main content

IMIS

A new integrated search interface will become available in the next phase of marineinfo.org.
For the time being, please use IMIS to search available data

 

[ report an error in this record ]basket (0): add | show Print this page

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections
de Winter, R.C.; Reerink, T.J.; Slangen, A.B.A.; de Vries, H.; Edwards, T.L.; van de Wal, R.S.W. (2017). Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 17(12): 2125-2141. https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-86
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Copernicus Publications: Göttingen. ISSN 1561-8633; e-ISSN 1684-9981, more
Peer reviewed article  

Available in  Authors 

Authors  Top 
  • de Winter, R.C.
  • Reerink, T.J.
  • Slangen, A.B.A., more
  • de Vries, H.
  • Edwards, T.L.
  • van de Wal, R.S.W.

Abstract
    Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013), De Vries and Van de Wal (2015) and Ritz et al. (2015). The global average median can be 0.18 m higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32 m. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8 m. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections.

All data in the Integrated Marine Information System (IMIS) is subject to the VLIZ privacy policy Top | Authors