Impact of prescribed sea surface temperatures on extended range forecasting
In: Journal of Marine Systems. Elsevier: Tokyo; Oxford; New York; Amsterdam. ISSN 0924-7963; e-ISSN 1879-1573, more Also appears in:Nihoul, J.C.J. (Ed.) (1990). Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling: proceedings of the 21th International Liège Colloquium on Ocean Hydrodynamics, Liège, May 8-12, 1989. Journal of Marine Systems, 1(1-3). Elsevier Scientific: Amsterdam. 313 pp., more |  |
| Abstract | Since the 1982-83 El Nino Southern Oscillation, it has been clear that climatological sea surface temperature is not a satisfactory boundary condition for the atmospheric long-range forecasting models. Three ensembles of Jan 1988 forecasts with different boundary conditions are presented. In the first set the sea surface temperatures are kept constant during the integration. In the second, they are updated at monthly intervals. In the third, they are updated daily. The mean skill and its confidence interval calculated from the sample variability show that the northern hemisphere 500 hPa height forecast is not improved by the more realistic boundary conditions. Between the tropics, there is a significant skill increase for the divergent circulation. |
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